Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Viktor6's avatar

This part of the discussion has been enhanced by conversations with a new friend of Super-Spiked, a person I did not know from my analyst career that has particularly interesting takes on explicitly pricing volatility into asset and company valuation.

Can we read their stuff somewhere? :-)

Expand full comment
Stuart Brainerd's avatar

Arjun, are you going to drop some suggestions on which of the oil and gas majors fall into the “well managed and capitalized” bucket today?

As a side comment on the projected hockey stick take-off for BEVs, I can’t see this happening any time soon. Not just on the supply side of batteries and improvement in battery tech, but due to the practical limitations of sufficient charging stations for those not so fortunate to have ample electrical supply in their garage. Looking around urban areas, there are practical limitations to building and wiring a sufficient number of high-amperage charging stations, especially for legacy multi-tenant buildings.

And any rapid spike in electrical power demand for BEV will come as many municipalities have the stated goal of shutting down fossil fuel powered electrical generation, and nuclear power plants, with no clear understanding of how deficient wind turbines and solar power are without sufficient baseload power and energy storage.

One other point often overlooked when comparing the cost of BEVs to ICE autos is the massive revenues generated by motor fuel taxes, both locally and nationally. A recent study estimated revenues of $1.20 per gallon of gas sold at the pump in California. This is revenue that the taxing authorities will not give up without a fight, meaning that if BEV sales were to dramatically increase there would be a political backlash with the electric “free rider” problem. This will lead to an increase in energy taxes or other fee structures to recoup the lost motor fuel tax revenues.

Expand full comment
23 more comments...

No posts