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NTX Oilman's avatar

Great piece, Arjun. It’s great to see all this comparative data compiled in one place. It’s an essay to bookmark for future reference, for sure!

I’m surprised that the smart analysts ignore the reality of poor countries climbing the economic ladder. It is inevitable unless the rich countries structure society in a way that intentionally keeps them down. That type of Malthusian belief system does seem to exist with some, but I don’t think it’s mainstream enough to be a baseline model.

So if the poor countries are going to become economically more wealthy, they MUST have energy. And to go from poor to richer they need the most affordable and dispatchable energy. I agree nukes and “renewables” will grow in the developed world, but they can’t be the starting point for a country trying to climb the economic ladder. They’re simply too resource and capital intensive for a poor country to start with. There is a reason they’re only now being considered in the rich countries. They’re a luxury energy source. They’re a first class airline ticket when the rest of the world is riding used bicycles.

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Norman Bay's avatar

As you note, the onus is on the oil demand deniers to tell us what level of World Economic Growth is possible under a Net Zero scenario dominated by intermittent electricity sources- with all the transmission losses fully factored in, and the replacement costs we will be facing in a few years’ time- which will also be compounding nicely.

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