I am also in favour of the written word! Much faster for me to read and share rather than watching a video. I almost never watch the videos, though if you do an auto transcript, I would read that.
This article comes at the perfect time, honestly. I've been pondering this exact power demand shift with AI just exploding, and it's quite something how quickly the infrastucture needs to catch up. Your take on this third super-cycle is incredibly insightful. That blurring of lines between oil & gas and power is so accurate, especially from my corner of the tech world.
For the group, the latest Gates Note has a realistic view of climate change, worth a read to put climate change in context as a problem, but not the biggest problem (poverty and disease still bigger problems in his view, if you think human flourishing is the main goal):
I'd like to inject the observation that large data center based AI is already obsolete, most of the industry just doesn't know it yet. Nuclear power is the future of power generation, and once the US removes the hobbles it deliberately placed on the industry in the past, it will eclipse the unfortunate and wasteful foray into not-so-renewables. Developing nations that have the capability already recognize this and are building a lot of reactors.
Thanks for always excellent and balanced insights, in both written and video. As to format, I greatly appreciate podcast as back-up, as I can listen while commuting. You have a clear and engaging voice, and hold this listener's attention.
The productivity of unconventional oil has been a surprise -- even T. Boone Pickens didn't think shale source rocks would work for oil in his book The First Billion is the Hardest.
It will be interesting to see how shale/unconventional/tight oil development outside the USA affects the supply balance. It looks like most non-USA unconventional production is currently in Canada's Montney and Duvernay or in Argentina's Vaca Meurte.
So it seems like returns over the next cycle will go to companies that get good margins on their production instead of prioritizing production growth itself.
Just chiming in to say that I much prefer your written work to the video podcasts, as I do not watch/listen to the latter. I appreciate the "forced clarity" that you note is required by writing as a medium.
Great work as usual, I always enjoy learning your perspective on energy macro trends.
Arjun, please put me in the written category. Less time and easier to review to make sure I follow your thinking. Thanks for sharing your knowledge in any format. Cheers
Thanks, Arjun. I'm part of that vocal minority. I never watch your videos, or almost anybody's. It is too boring because of the low data rate. Some substacks offer transcripts, so there must be tools to make that easy. It would be appreciated.
One typo: In Exhibit 3 you plotted net exports not imports.
thank you John. There is just something about writing that forces you to really examine what you are communicating and you either personally think it makes sense or doesn't. When talking, one can get away with more looseness.
I think by writing the posts you get the best of both worlds, the clarity of writing ( "writing is refined thinking" - Stephen King, by the way if you ever read King's book 'On Writing' it's an interesting read, albeit for fiction writing) and the convenience of listening (via the audio reading portion of the app). I 'read' almost all Super Spiked material via listening, often several times, and then I'll go back and check graphs, charts, etc. I do this because I can fit it into the day conveniently, rather than having to sit and dedicate time to reading a screen. If you write the content, that gives clarity and detail and the embedded audio option lets us listen to the written content, the best of both worlds.
Interesting position as always Arjun. The key question is this one, it seems to me: But won’t many developing nations prioritize electric vehicle (EV) growth in order to limit oil imports?
China has clearly done that and we are seeing the oil impact. But can others emulate China’s example? Or perhaps the question is at what cost?
I’m sure China - with its manufacturing surplus - would be keen to facilitate this.
Is there a future price war between OPEC+ vs BYD/MingYang etc?
Thank you Ed! for sure they will. It's why oil demand is unlikely to reach 250 million b/d which would be the "everyone on Earth is energy rich" TAM. gasoline about 25% of demand barrel, so why we start taking some amount away due to rise of EVs.
I think the mindset that the world in aggregate is choosing between X or Y energy is what I push back most on.
I am also in favour of the written word! Much faster for me to read and share rather than watching a video. I almost never watch the videos, though if you do an auto transcript, I would read that.
This article comes at the perfect time, honestly. I've been pondering this exact power demand shift with AI just exploding, and it's quite something how quickly the infrastucture needs to catch up. Your take on this third super-cycle is incredibly insightful. That blurring of lines between oil & gas and power is so accurate, especially from my corner of the tech world.
Thank you Rainbow Roxy
For the group, the latest Gates Note has a realistic view of climate change, worth a read to put climate change in context as a problem, but not the biggest problem (poverty and disease still bigger problems in his view, if you think human flourishing is the main goal):
https://www.gatesnotes.com/home/home-page-topic/reader/three-tough-truths-about-climate
I'd like to inject the observation that large data center based AI is already obsolete, most of the industry just doesn't know it yet. Nuclear power is the future of power generation, and once the US removes the hobbles it deliberately placed on the industry in the past, it will eclipse the unfortunate and wasteful foray into not-so-renewables. Developing nations that have the capability already recognize this and are building a lot of reactors.
thank you Evan for your comment. We too are bullish nuclear, though does take some time.
Thanks for always excellent and balanced insights, in both written and video. As to format, I greatly appreciate podcast as back-up, as I can listen while commuting. You have a clear and engaging voice, and hold this listener's attention.
thank you Andrew! and I am very appreciative of your long-standing support and engagement.
The productivity of unconventional oil has been a surprise -- even T. Boone Pickens didn't think shale source rocks would work for oil in his book The First Billion is the Hardest.
It will be interesting to see how shale/unconventional/tight oil development outside the USA affects the supply balance. It looks like most non-USA unconventional production is currently in Canada's Montney and Duvernay or in Argentina's Vaca Meurte.
Saudi Arabia's Jafurah Gas field could help switch summer power demands from oil to gas while EOG is exploring unconventional block 3 in the UAE and Continental Resources is expanding to Turkey https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/estimated-6-billion-barrel-shale-oil-reserve-southeast-turkey-minister-says-2025-05-21/
So it seems like returns over the next cycle will go to companies that get good margins on their production instead of prioritizing production growth itself.
all good thought Eric, thanks for posting.
Just chiming in to say that I much prefer your written work to the video podcasts, as I do not watch/listen to the latter. I appreciate the "forced clarity" that you note is required by writing as a medium.
Great work as usual, I always enjoy learning your perspective on energy macro trends.
thank you David!
Arjun, please put me in the written category. Less time and easier to review to make sure I follow your thinking. Thanks for sharing your knowledge in any format. Cheers
thank you DCM! and noted.
Thanks, Arjun. I'm part of that vocal minority. I never watch your videos, or almost anybody's. It is too boring because of the low data rate. Some substacks offer transcripts, so there must be tools to make that easy. It would be appreciated.
One typo: In Exhibit 3 you plotted net exports not imports.
transcripts are a good idea. the auto transcripts are getting better. going to consider including at some point going forward.
Your use of “ forced clarity” speaks volumes, please continue with the written work. Thank you immensely for your efforts.
thank you John. There is just something about writing that forces you to really examine what you are communicating and you either personally think it makes sense or doesn't. When talking, one can get away with more looseness.
I think by writing the posts you get the best of both worlds, the clarity of writing ( "writing is refined thinking" - Stephen King, by the way if you ever read King's book 'On Writing' it's an interesting read, albeit for fiction writing) and the convenience of listening (via the audio reading portion of the app). I 'read' almost all Super Spiked material via listening, often several times, and then I'll go back and check graphs, charts, etc. I do this because I can fit it into the day conveniently, rather than having to sit and dedicate time to reading a screen. If you write the content, that gives clarity and detail and the embedded audio option lets us listen to the written content, the best of both worlds.
Great thoughts Investor, thank you!
thanks, really enjoy reading the perspective
thank you Sedona
Interesting position as always Arjun. The key question is this one, it seems to me: But won’t many developing nations prioritize electric vehicle (EV) growth in order to limit oil imports?
China has clearly done that and we are seeing the oil impact. But can others emulate China’s example? Or perhaps the question is at what cost?
I’m sure China - with its manufacturing surplus - would be keen to facilitate this.
Is there a future price war between OPEC+ vs BYD/MingYang etc?
Thank you Ed! for sure they will. It's why oil demand is unlikely to reach 250 million b/d which would be the "everyone on Earth is energy rich" TAM. gasoline about 25% of demand barrel, so why we start taking some amount away due to rise of EVs.
I think the mindset that the world in aggregate is choosing between X or Y energy is what I push back most on.