The peak oil demand is just a fig leaf to try to cover up the fact that there are only a few countries that can increase oil production substantially. These are Saudi, UAE, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Guyana, and Argentina. These need to fill the gap that is taking place in the large depleting fields in the world. This is unlikely to happen and will be made clear to everyone by 2030 - Probably sooner. Peak crude and condensate production took place in November 2018 and since that time the world has used 205 billion barrels of crude and condensate, which is the more that the true Saudi reserves according to Rystad energy database.
The oil provinces are getting gassier and natural gas plant liquids will produce the light components that go mainly into the chemical industry of the world. These are not transportation fuels and fairly soon the diesel will be scarce.
Arjun, you’re not giving enough credit to Opec! Opec might be trying to change the narrative which seems to creep into all areas of life now. They have succeeded in getting rid of the spare capacity overhang which is used as an argument to put a lid on prices. Thus changing the narrative. An analogy would be a stock with warrants that creates a lid on the stock . No overhang, demand increases and oil goes up without the old argument that they will increase production. Just a thought.
Maybe you can set your AI to work on it! The best my AI can come up with is 'Energy for Xi!', which is pretty good I think.
You must be incorporating AI heavily into your analysis these days, I'm in the middle of going back over every spreadsheet I have created now that I can (relatively easily) compare metrics by getting the AI to do most of the number-crunching legwork, and getting great insights I just could never have before. That would be an interesting Super Spiked post - how AI is transforming the energy industry.
Much agree with mentioning the spirit of “prove me wrong” Charlie Kirk. Stifling debate on oil and other energy risks chaos, including abject poverty and even war.
Thank you Andrew. The attempted stifling of debate, or perhaps putting way too many topics in categories of "acceptable" vs "unacceptable" views, is a huge issue.
The push back by bears on the China inventory build argument is a bit humorous to me as well.
I have a chart showing China oil imports lag pretty well with China's growth in fiscal and credit impulse.
So one can make the argument that isnt that bullish for oil that China is stimulating?
100% Rob! China is certainly not buying oil due to a declining economy and collapsing oil demand :)
The peak oil demand is just a fig leaf to try to cover up the fact that there are only a few countries that can increase oil production substantially. These are Saudi, UAE, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Guyana, and Argentina. These need to fill the gap that is taking place in the large depleting fields in the world. This is unlikely to happen and will be made clear to everyone by 2030 - Probably sooner. Peak crude and condensate production took place in November 2018 and since that time the world has used 205 billion barrels of crude and condensate, which is the more that the true Saudi reserves according to Rystad energy database.
The oil provinces are getting gassier and natural gas plant liquids will produce the light components that go mainly into the chemical industry of the world. These are not transportation fuels and fairly soon the diesel will be scarce.
appreciate your sharing your view.
Arjun, you’re not giving enough credit to Opec! Opec might be trying to change the narrative which seems to creep into all areas of life now. They have succeeded in getting rid of the spare capacity overhang which is used as an argument to put a lid on prices. Thus changing the narrative. An analogy would be a stock with warrants that creates a lid on the stock . No overhang, demand increases and oil goes up without the old argument that they will increase production. Just a thought.
good stuff MP. I like the analogy to a stock with a selling shareholder overhang.
Hahaha. 'Pump Free for Xi'?
Was really struggling to come up with an equivalent to Pump For Trump :)
Maybe you can set your AI to work on it! The best my AI can come up with is 'Energy for Xi!', which is pretty good I think.
You must be incorporating AI heavily into your analysis these days, I'm in the middle of going back over every spreadsheet I have created now that I can (relatively easily) compare metrics by getting the AI to do most of the number-crunching legwork, and getting great insights I just could never have before. That would be an interesting Super Spiked post - how AI is transforming the energy industry.
Ha! I should have (and didn't) do that!!! I am definitely a huge fan of AI...at least its early stages that we are in right now.
Much agree with mentioning the spirit of “prove me wrong” Charlie Kirk. Stifling debate on oil and other energy risks chaos, including abject poverty and even war.
Thank you Andrew. The attempted stifling of debate, or perhaps putting way too many topics in categories of "acceptable" vs "unacceptable" views, is a huge issue.
I love your disclaimer
thank you!