"So if you are trying to avoid purposely or accidentally turning into a cycle rider, there must be some different course of action that is needed going forward relative to past cycles." Perfectly captured the issue - cycle riders would say that it's hard to see how a commodity industry selling a product that is fungible can ever really be an industry where specific companies generate above-average returns over many cycles. That makes Exxon and Shell's historical performance that much more impressive!
Question: could this cycle be genuinely different than past cycles because ESG and shareholder pressure to restrain capex may significantly prolong this upcycle?
Arjun, thanks for letting me relive those exciting cycle rider days of the 1990's!
As you know, the wind turbines work most of the time down here in the Lone Star State. Particularly along US90 or I-10 in West Texas. We just don't put them up in Big Bend
Great article and yes on wind and solar farms in the California desert...appalling indifference to the extraordinary natural scenery. If one can ever engineer it, the desert the morning after a torrential rain will shake even the most dedicated atheist with the absolute explosion of flowers, color and wildlife and by the midday sun it is gone...poof. White Mountains are a good spot.
"So if you are trying to avoid purposely or accidentally turning into a cycle rider, there must be some different course of action that is needed going forward relative to past cycles." Perfectly captured the issue - cycle riders would say that it's hard to see how a commodity industry selling a product that is fungible can ever really be an industry where specific companies generate above-average returns over many cycles. That makes Exxon and Shell's historical performance that much more impressive!
Question: could this cycle be genuinely different than past cycles because ESG and shareholder pressure to restrain capex may significantly prolong this upcycle?
Arjun, thanks for letting me relive those exciting cycle rider days of the 1990's!
As you know, the wind turbines work most of the time down here in the Lone Star State. Particularly along US90 or I-10 in West Texas. We just don't put them up in Big Bend
Great article and yes on wind and solar farms in the California desert...appalling indifference to the extraordinary natural scenery. If one can ever engineer it, the desert the morning after a torrential rain will shake even the most dedicated atheist with the absolute explosion of flowers, color and wildlife and by the midday sun it is gone...poof. White Mountains are a good spot.