Can't wait to read your analysis on how the Magnificent 7 have affected sector weightings. That was the first thing that popped into my head, maybe other sectors have ended up with reduced weightings also due to the dominance of tech growth stocks.
Arjun, Love your writing and podcasts! On rent vs. own: we stayed in our (owned) home and it’s worked out well for us, but it seems that the best choice is so dependent upon individual circumstances. We travel almost half the year, so it’s somewhat unnecessary, but both of our kids stayed in the metro area and a lot of other relatives have moved to the area — so it’s great to have space to have family and friends together for holidays, etc. Very peaceful to have the same place, with no shared walls, to return to regularly.
I worked for JPM from 1990-2022. I remember the free lunches in the early 90’s.
Miss those days as it created a great working environment. Not everything should be cut in a zeal to eliminate expense ie.. the firm got more out of us by giving us a little lunch than the small sum it took to feed us.
I am still in the camp that most fund managers are only interested in keeping up with the herd which these days means anything that smells like AI or the Magnificent 7 which appears to be 6 now that Elon forgothow to provide financial forecasts to his investors.
Energy rightly had a bigger mind share in 2022 and that disappeared in 2023 as everyone believed EV’s would magically cure the need for oil/gas.
As you rightly point out the next 3-10 years should generate higher ROCE for the majors and many of the well run companies like Devon, Diamondbacks, etc.. Especially in light of these companies being good stewards of capital and having very shareholder friendly capital return policies.
I am still amazed that many energy companies trade at such low multiples in 2024. It is if they think oil is going back to $40 a barrel and NGL will remain low.
Even the top midstream players like EPD and ET trade low in spite of the great dividends.
Thanks for the book recommendation. Bought it this am.
Will share one with you. The Sputnik Season-1957-The Year Baseball and America Changed. Great baseball book. It is pre Astros, but great stories shared about baseball when the Giants, Yankees, and Dodgers are dominated NYC and the 1957 baseball season.
I am retired and definitely am in the camp of renting as an empty nester. No reason to spend capital on a big home and kids can crash for a few days at the house or a local hotel as they get older.
Thanks Arjun! Always love reading your thoughts and frameworks for analysis! I also ordered the book you recommended which arrived yesterday, looking forward to learning that history. As a Colorado native, I hope Colorado finds a way to get more of your time in the future. You have at least one, but probably many more fans out here.
Hi Arjun. I graduated as a Petroleum Engineer in 1985 and worked for Conoco for about 8 years. A downturn encouraged my exodus from the industry but I remain in natural gas pipeline work. I am interested in reading about the oil industry and appreciate the recommendation for “Oil Man”. Do you have recommendations for other books about the oil industry that you can share for us sentimental older timers? Thanks.
Can't wait to read your analysis on how the Magnificent 7 have affected sector weightings. That was the first thing that popped into my head, maybe other sectors have ended up with reduced weightings also due to the dominance of tech growth stocks.
Arjun, Love your writing and podcasts! On rent vs. own: we stayed in our (owned) home and it’s worked out well for us, but it seems that the best choice is so dependent upon individual circumstances. We travel almost half the year, so it’s somewhat unnecessary, but both of our kids stayed in the metro area and a lot of other relatives have moved to the area — so it’s great to have space to have family and friends together for holidays, etc. Very peaceful to have the same place, with no shared walls, to return to regularly.
Arjun,
Love the articles. Keep them coming.
I worked for JPM from 1990-2022. I remember the free lunches in the early 90’s.
Miss those days as it created a great working environment. Not everything should be cut in a zeal to eliminate expense ie.. the firm got more out of us by giving us a little lunch than the small sum it took to feed us.
I am still in the camp that most fund managers are only interested in keeping up with the herd which these days means anything that smells like AI or the Magnificent 7 which appears to be 6 now that Elon forgothow to provide financial forecasts to his investors.
Energy rightly had a bigger mind share in 2022 and that disappeared in 2023 as everyone believed EV’s would magically cure the need for oil/gas.
As you rightly point out the next 3-10 years should generate higher ROCE for the majors and many of the well run companies like Devon, Diamondbacks, etc.. Especially in light of these companies being good stewards of capital and having very shareholder friendly capital return policies.
I am still amazed that many energy companies trade at such low multiples in 2024. It is if they think oil is going back to $40 a barrel and NGL will remain low.
Even the top midstream players like EPD and ET trade low in spite of the great dividends.
Thanks for the book recommendation. Bought it this am.
Will share one with you. The Sputnik Season-1957-The Year Baseball and America Changed. Great baseball book. It is pre Astros, but great stories shared about baseball when the Giants, Yankees, and Dodgers are dominated NYC and the 1957 baseball season.
I am retired and definitely am in the camp of renting as an empty nester. No reason to spend capital on a big home and kids can crash for a few days at the house or a local hotel as they get older.
Thanks again.
Steve
Thanks Arjun! Always love reading your thoughts and frameworks for analysis! I also ordered the book you recommended which arrived yesterday, looking forward to learning that history. As a Colorado native, I hope Colorado finds a way to get more of your time in the future. You have at least one, but probably many more fans out here.
Hi Arjun. I graduated as a Petroleum Engineer in 1985 and worked for Conoco for about 8 years. A downturn encouraged my exodus from the industry but I remain in natural gas pipeline work. I am interested in reading about the oil industry and appreciate the recommendation for “Oil Man”. Do you have recommendations for other books about the oil industry that you can share for us sentimental older timers? Thanks.
Thanks again Arjun. Your opinions and analysis are important to me. I love reading and will put “Oil Man” on my list.