20 Comments
May 3, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti

Thanks for an excellent piece plus heads up on Kamau interview.

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May 2, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti

Great article as usual. China and India import allot of their coal. China was suffering energy shortages in recent years because they embargoed coal from Australia which was one of their main suppliers.

"Environmental factors like clean air, clean water, and biodiversity can go hand-in-hand with an improving economic outlook and pressure will remain to take these factors into account."

The surest way to protect the environment is to grow people's wealth. People who are poor and barely getting by don't have time to worry about the environment. It's only when people get to a level of wealth where they aren't constantly worrying about basic survival that they can and do start worrying about the environment.

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Apr 29, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti

Thanks again for a great post Arjun. The irony of coal having the clearest demand outlook became very apparent after Germany outbid others for LNG last year and then burned a lot of it rather than continue to use their nuclear reactors. As you have noted previously, what developing country wants the risk they won't be able to access LNG at a reasonable price, if they have abundant coal available to keep their grid and heavy industry operating? While you note most developing countries have state controlled companies, so investment is impossible, what about imports? Are western coal companies only selling to their domestic markets? I keep hearing Porter Collins and Vincent Daniels of Seawolf (The Big Short veterans) in their quarterly segment of the podcast their former colleague Danny Moses co-hosts (On the Tape) talk about their position in BTU that they've been building for a while - a great balance sheet, return of capital play. I'm a bit skeptical, as coal appears to have a worse reputation than oil and gas. So how many fund managers/institutions will buy shares, even if the balance sheet/returns on equity look great, which you need these days for any chance of multiple expansion. Your thoughts?

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Apr 29, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti

Again, thanks a million. I read a lot, but nothing is more helpful to me than “Super-Spiked”. PS I immediately ordered Cobalt Red.

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EXCELLENT!!!!

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Apr 29, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti

Arjun, another outstanding piece that is unassailable in its logic. The real interesting question is what will the world look like if in fact politicians force the energy system to move to less efficient sources (from an energy density and effective cost when including reliability)? Luke Gromen has made the case that the entire global sovereign debt bubble is only sustainable with ample supplies of affordable oil and natural gas ...

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Apr 29, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti

I completely agree, Arjun. The energy evolution must focus on the inclusion of the 3.5 Bn people in energy poverty.

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Apr 29, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti

Such a great overview of the state of play. Do you follow Roger Pielke Jr? Your second paragraph describes what he calls the Iron Law of Climate Policy https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-iron-law-of-climate-policy

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Arjun, that chart showing population vs energy demand is mind-blowing! Thanks for sharing.

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