Arjun. What a tremendous, thoughtful and detailed summary of your theses on the energy transition era. You are a knowledgeable, articulate teacher. You are willing to firmly take positions. Yet do so without attacking those with opposing views. Merry Christmas to you and your family. As one who's followed your work I thank you. Look forward to your next analysis.
Always good to read your thoughts, Arjun, and you make a convincing case.
I feel you’ve missed any mention of the pandemic, though. Surely that point when WTI went negative and oil companies worried about the writing on the wall was when we really saw that big transition concept accelerate.
As normality returned, so there was a reversion to business as usual.
It may get old, but I feel compelled to again tell you how much I appreciate your offerings. It really helps me. Happy Holiday Arjun to you and your families.
Martin, I assure you that I will never tire of hearing nice words about my posts! :) Seriously, thank you very much for your readership and engagement. Happy holidays! Arjun
I have been coming to China since the early 2000s. Speaking of how quickly a culture can shift attitudes towards the environment as it gets wealthy, some images I recall from the early 2000s: driving up to a factory and seeing a pile of electronic waste just dumped behind it, sitting in the rain. A line of doctors and nurses smoking in front of a hospital. Workers in t-shirts on the factory floor with sparks flying around them.
I drove past a daycare in Shanghai that had covered their outdoor play area in a transparent plastic bubble, because the play area was always covered in a thick dust of particulate pollution, and it wasn't safe for the children to play in that. I always think of that dystopian image whenever we discuss the energy tradeoffs to get wealthy: watching children playing under a dirty plastic bubble.
Fast forward to today: the millenial generation has a much different attitude towards the environment, personal health and safety. Fitness, organic food, a big reduction in smoking, a widespread interest in the environment and outdoor trips (know that I am from Canada, people are fascinated by the idea of real Canadian 'wilderness'). The cultural difference between the equivalent to the Baby Boom generation and millenials is huge, and it's heading in the right direction.
So China has gone through in a single generation what it took the West several generations of industrial revolution to do, and every other country will go through its own version. But it doesn't have to take forever, as soon as people reach a certain level of wealth our values and priorities quickly change.
Thank you Investor! And appreciate your sharing your views on China as a regular visitor. I have similar observations as someone who first visiting the country in the 1997-ish time frame (thank you to Doug Terreson of Morgan Stanley for that visit!) and went every 12-24 month during my GS career...though I now haven't been back since probably 2014. The transformation was remarkable and very much consistent with what you saw.
Excellent review! Thank you for taking the time and effort. I appreciate it.
Although a clean energy professional (efficiency, demand response, wind, bess, and solar), i agree with almost everything that you write. I think that we will have dodged a bullet if the EPA clean power plant rules are rescinded, for example.
The only thing that I would (personally) add is that it is more than energy for every one. It is energy for every one, for ever.
This may be implicit in your expectation of continued growth in non-fossil fuels, especially in new markets. But we are never in a position to waste energy, at least not in my lifetime.
I am vehemently against its export. Especially by foreign countries. This is true for me as an American, but it is true for other countries as well (unless the living environment is so harsh that there will never be a nature population to use it).
Thank you Jeff and I very much appreciate your thoughtful comment and engagement. and yes "for ever," which implicitly does mean the eventual displacement of fossil fuels with better alternatives.
"For ever" - the idea that fossil fuels are finite has been used time and again as an excuse to over tax, over regulate and over-stigmatize their production and consumption to the great detriment of human welfare.
The appropriate question is "how finite?" Ten, twenty, fifty years of supply is quite finite. One hundred, five hundred, one thousand year's supply is not "finite enough" to matter, practically speaking.
It's looking more and more like the latter is the case especially in a universe where "fossil fuels" do not necessarily come from fossils (abiogenic hydrocarbons).
Arjun. What a tremendous, thoughtful and detailed summary of your theses on the energy transition era. You are a knowledgeable, articulate teacher. You are willing to firmly take positions. Yet do so without attacking those with opposing views. Merry Christmas to you and your family. As one who's followed your work I thank you. Look forward to your next analysis.
Always good to read your thoughts, Arjun, and you make a convincing case.
I feel you’ve missed any mention of the pandemic, though. Surely that point when WTI went negative and oil companies worried about the writing on the wall was when we really saw that big transition concept accelerate.
As normality returned, so there was a reversion to business as usual.
Read every bio written by Walter Isaacson. Great studies.
It may get old, but I feel compelled to again tell you how much I appreciate your offerings. It really helps me. Happy Holiday Arjun to you and your families.
Martin, I assure you that I will never tire of hearing nice words about my posts! :) Seriously, thank you very much for your readership and engagement. Happy holidays! Arjun
Great note Arjun,
I have been coming to China since the early 2000s. Speaking of how quickly a culture can shift attitudes towards the environment as it gets wealthy, some images I recall from the early 2000s: driving up to a factory and seeing a pile of electronic waste just dumped behind it, sitting in the rain. A line of doctors and nurses smoking in front of a hospital. Workers in t-shirts on the factory floor with sparks flying around them.
I drove past a daycare in Shanghai that had covered their outdoor play area in a transparent plastic bubble, because the play area was always covered in a thick dust of particulate pollution, and it wasn't safe for the children to play in that. I always think of that dystopian image whenever we discuss the energy tradeoffs to get wealthy: watching children playing under a dirty plastic bubble.
Fast forward to today: the millenial generation has a much different attitude towards the environment, personal health and safety. Fitness, organic food, a big reduction in smoking, a widespread interest in the environment and outdoor trips (know that I am from Canada, people are fascinated by the idea of real Canadian 'wilderness'). The cultural difference between the equivalent to the Baby Boom generation and millenials is huge, and it's heading in the right direction.
So China has gone through in a single generation what it took the West several generations of industrial revolution to do, and every other country will go through its own version. But it doesn't have to take forever, as soon as people reach a certain level of wealth our values and priorities quickly change.
Thank you Investor! And appreciate your sharing your views on China as a regular visitor. I have similar observations as someone who first visiting the country in the 1997-ish time frame (thank you to Doug Terreson of Morgan Stanley for that visit!) and went every 12-24 month during my GS career...though I now haven't been back since probably 2014. The transformation was remarkable and very much consistent with what you saw.
Japan and South Korea are both facing demographic collapse, so maybe not the best examples.
That’s a forward looking view. There’s no doubt they are rich. We can debate if they stay rich.
Excellent review! Thank you for taking the time and effort. I appreciate it.
Although a clean energy professional (efficiency, demand response, wind, bess, and solar), i agree with almost everything that you write. I think that we will have dodged a bullet if the EPA clean power plant rules are rescinded, for example.
The only thing that I would (personally) add is that it is more than energy for every one. It is energy for every one, for ever.
This may be implicit in your expectation of continued growth in non-fossil fuels, especially in new markets. But we are never in a position to waste energy, at least not in my lifetime.
I am vehemently against its export. Especially by foreign countries. This is true for me as an American, but it is true for other countries as well (unless the living environment is so harsh that there will never be a nature population to use it).
Thanks again.
Thank you Jeff and I very much appreciate your thoughtful comment and engagement. and yes "for ever," which implicitly does mean the eventual displacement of fossil fuels with better alternatives.
"For ever" - the idea that fossil fuels are finite has been used time and again as an excuse to over tax, over regulate and over-stigmatize their production and consumption to the great detriment of human welfare.
The appropriate question is "how finite?" Ten, twenty, fifty years of supply is quite finite. One hundred, five hundred, one thousand year's supply is not "finite enough" to matter, practically speaking.
It's looking more and more like the latter is the case especially in a universe where "fossil fuels" do not necessarily come from fossils (abiogenic hydrocarbons).