Happy belated birthday from a fellow March birthday. I find myself on the other end of many of these comments having officially entered my mid 30s and adding the first new member to my family in the past 3 weeks. Thanks again for another great article Arjun!
A happy belated birthday as well. The truth I have found in my almost 65 years (next Saturday is the big day) is that there is always more to absorb and the more you do, the more you realize how little you know.
fortunately, earlier in my life I had a 2 year hiatus when my daughter was quite young and developed a marvelous relationship with her, so unlike that of mine with my late parents and it is the best thing I ever did.
One last question though regarding the questions about demand, Didn't we learn through Jevon's Paradox that efficiency does not reduce consumption, but rather increases it? As such, more efficiency would seem to point to continued increases in demand. To me, the question is, how long before enough people recognize that the unlucky 7 billion are not going to be deterred in their quest for a better life. the recent interview of the Guyanese President, Irfaan Ali, (https://x.com/NuzhatNazar/status/1776294838914150875) was exemplary in describing what seems very likely to be the view of all those who are currently energy poor. With that in mind, I suspect that the demand for Capex is going to be quite strong and there will be much more energy found over time.
Your offerings are consistently brilliant,Arjun...and as a 75 year old-which is 2X away for you-my take is that it is a trade off between the gradual decline of physical abilities and a deepening understanding of how truly fortunate we are to be alive and participate fully in the field of so many opportunities for personal growth that keep popping up.It gets better,amigo!!
55 is young! Thanks for a good analysis. You mentioned that Goldman "noted an acceleration in hybrid sales". You might like me earlier post "Hybrids are a Pretty Good Compromise" -
Reading your note about the life stages I see a resemblance to my own life. By the time I read to age 45 I'm thinking "OK, what comes next?? Hopefully the years when you've got the major things mostly sorted out and can just start enjoying the ride!?".
- Note for the group, both letters are worth reading regarding peak demand and the role of the IEA: "House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) and Energy, Climate, and Grid Security Subcommittee Chair Jeff Duncan (R-SC) sent letters to Department of Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol regarding IEA's shift away from its core energy security mission..."
I'm very glad to hear that you are broadening your consideration of metrics to include something cash based.
At a few months from age 70, my thoughts are that the past 20 years have embedded expectations about getting off the payroll into your kids, whether that was intentional or not. Now, unless you want some very turbulent times, you get to live with the consequences.
51 year old Steelers/Michigan Wolverines fan/working anesthesiologist with family of 4 here….growing up in same generation I can relate…thanks for sharing your memories!
Happy birthday, glad to hear 55 isn’t awful
Appreciate the fantastic analysis and thoughts in energy!
Unfortunately I am one of those who must note how young you are. 67 awaits me in 22 days. Oh well. My 97 year old father just passed away in the nursing home on Good Friday evening after a 6+ year stay. I was blessed beyond belief for so long. I had visited the previous Saturday, and the last thing he said to me as I was about to walk out was "We sure had a lot of great times together". Wow
I'm compelled to comment on your previous ages ending in 5 trip through memory lane. Regarding the 70's Knicks, quite simply Walt Clyde Frazier was and still is the coolest NBA player ever. No one comes close. I was always an Illinois/Chicago guy, but I sure did like those Knicks teams as a youngster. As to the '94 Rangers, I'm nowhere near being a real hockey fan, but I have to scold you for just a passing reference to that Stanley Cup. Seriously! Even I remember this iconic bit of history:
Happy belated birthday from a fellow March birthday. I find myself on the other end of many of these comments having officially entered my mid 30s and adding the first new member to my family in the past 3 weeks. Thanks again for another great article Arjun!
A happy belated birthday as well. The truth I have found in my almost 65 years (next Saturday is the big day) is that there is always more to absorb and the more you do, the more you realize how little you know.
fortunately, earlier in my life I had a 2 year hiatus when my daughter was quite young and developed a marvelous relationship with her, so unlike that of mine with my late parents and it is the best thing I ever did.
One last question though regarding the questions about demand, Didn't we learn through Jevon's Paradox that efficiency does not reduce consumption, but rather increases it? As such, more efficiency would seem to point to continued increases in demand. To me, the question is, how long before enough people recognize that the unlucky 7 billion are not going to be deterred in their quest for a better life. the recent interview of the Guyanese President, Irfaan Ali, (https://x.com/NuzhatNazar/status/1776294838914150875) was exemplary in describing what seems very likely to be the view of all those who are currently energy poor. With that in mind, I suspect that the demand for Capex is going to be quite strong and there will be much more energy found over time.
Your offerings are consistently brilliant,Arjun...and as a 75 year old-which is 2X away for you-my take is that it is a trade off between the gradual decline of physical abilities and a deepening understanding of how truly fortunate we are to be alive and participate fully in the field of so many opportunities for personal growth that keep popping up.It gets better,amigo!!
In gratitude,A...Thank you!
Thanks for another great post!From the personal to the industry analysis… all good!
Btw. I can’t believe how much my love being 66! Love giving money to my kids and family members.
Excellent health and well being is pure gold! (So grateful for good habits).
I’m betting you will do really well too! Don’t worry be happy may sound trite but it has never been more true!
Best to you and your family!
Happy birthday for last weekend!
55 is young! Thanks for a good analysis. You mentioned that Goldman "noted an acceleration in hybrid sales". You might like me earlier post "Hybrids are a Pretty Good Compromise" -
https://alchristie.substack.com/p/hybrids-are-a-pretty-good-compromise
Thank you Arjun. Happy Birthday.
Always great to read a few personal notes that help connect the fantastic insights and expertise to a real person
Reading your note about the life stages I see a resemblance to my own life. By the time I read to age 45 I'm thinking "OK, what comes next?? Hopefully the years when you've got the major things mostly sorted out and can just start enjoying the ride!?".
- Note for the group, both letters are worth reading regarding peak demand and the role of the IEA: "House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) and Energy, Climate, and Grid Security Subcommittee Chair Jeff Duncan (R-SC) sent letters to Department of Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol regarding IEA's shift away from its core energy security mission..."
https://d1dth6e84htgma.cloudfront.net/04_03_24_Letter_to_Dr_Fatih_Birol_1a78d54414.pdf
https://d1dth6e84htgma.cloudfront.net/04_03_24_Letter_to_Secretary_Granholm_1_ea3986e75b.pdf
I'm very glad to hear that you are broadening your consideration of metrics to include something cash based.
At a few months from age 70, my thoughts are that the past 20 years have embedded expectations about getting off the payroll into your kids, whether that was intentional or not. Now, unless you want some very turbulent times, you get to live with the consequences.
Paul
51 year old Steelers/Michigan Wolverines fan/working anesthesiologist with family of 4 here….growing up in same generation I can relate…thanks for sharing your memories!
Happy birthday, glad to hear 55 isn’t awful
Appreciate the fantastic analysis and thoughts in energy!
Good morning and happy belated birthday...
Unfortunately I am one of those who must note how young you are. 67 awaits me in 22 days. Oh well. My 97 year old father just passed away in the nursing home on Good Friday evening after a 6+ year stay. I was blessed beyond belief for so long. I had visited the previous Saturday, and the last thing he said to me as I was about to walk out was "We sure had a lot of great times together". Wow
I'm compelled to comment on your previous ages ending in 5 trip through memory lane. Regarding the 70's Knicks, quite simply Walt Clyde Frazier was and still is the coolest NBA player ever. No one comes close. I was always an Illinois/Chicago guy, but I sure did like those Knicks teams as a youngster. As to the '94 Rangers, I'm nowhere near being a real hockey fan, but I have to scold you for just a passing reference to that Stanley Cup. Seriously! Even I remember this iconic bit of history:
https://youtu.be/do3fICIYCR0?si=TuBzJyGe57Bow_lK
Thanks as always for outstanding analysis.
P.S. Is it just me, or does yesterday's Musk Robotaxi unveil announcement seem a bit contrived?