Happy belated birthday from a fellow March birthday. I find myself on the other end of many of these comments having officially entered my mid 30s and adding the first new member to my family in the past 3 weeks. Thanks again for another great article Arjun!
A happy belated birthday as well. The truth I have found in my almost 65 years (next Saturday is the big day) is that there is always more to absorb and the more you do, the more you realize how little you know.
fortunately, earlier in my life I had a 2 year hiatus when my daughter was quite young and developed a marvelous relationship with her, so unlike that of mine with my late parents and it is the best thing I ever did.
One last question though regarding the questions about demand, Didn't we learn through Jevon's Paradox that efficiency does not reduce consumption, but rather increases it? As such, more efficiency would seem to point to continued increases in demand. To me, the question is, how long before enough people recognize that the unlucky 7 billion are not going to be deterred in their quest for a better life. the recent interview of the Guyanese President, Irfaan Ali, (https://x.com/NuzhatNazar/status/1776294838914150875) was exemplary in describing what seems very likely to be the view of all those who are currently energy poor. With that in mind, I suspect that the demand for Capex is going to be quite strong and there will be much more energy found over time.
Thank you Andy! Great to hear about you and your daughter...those work hiatus's are a pure gift.
Totally hear you on Jevon's Paradox. I actually want to look into examples where I would guess "saturation" allows efficiency gains to be more lasting. I'd agree that in the developing world we are far, far from that. In the mature regions, may be more possible that you could have some demand erosion.
Your offerings are consistently brilliant,Arjun...and as a 75 year old-which is 2X away for you-my take is that it is a trade off between the gradual decline of physical abilities and a deepening understanding of how truly fortunate we are to be alive and participate fully in the field of so many opportunities for personal growth that keep popping up.It gets better,amigo!!
I'm smack in the middle of your both. 65. I tell friends that aging is all about managing loss. The body slowly gives things up. And you have to adjust. OTOH, one of my favorite sayings is "The Owl of Minerva flies at dusk.". One of Minerva's animals was the owl; and one of Minerva's traits was wisdom. (Hence, the origin of the "wise old owl" of literature etc.). 55 is not quite dusk. More like late afternoon. But, you're almost there! : )
appreciate your perspective. On charitable items, we follow that philosophy and feel good about where we are and our forward plans. Its the kids/family part that we are less sure of...
55 is young! Thanks for a good analysis. You mentioned that Goldman "noted an acceleration in hybrid sales". You might like me earlier post "Hybrids are a Pretty Good Compromise" -
Reading your note about the life stages I see a resemblance to my own life. By the time I read to age 45 I'm thinking "OK, what comes next?? Hopefully the years when you've got the major things mostly sorted out and can just start enjoying the ride!?".
- Note for the group, both letters are worth reading regarding peak demand and the role of the IEA: "House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) and Energy, Climate, and Grid Security Subcommittee Chair Jeff Duncan (R-SC) sent letters to Department of Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol regarding IEA's shift away from its core energy security mission..."
I'm very glad to hear that you are broadening your consideration of metrics to include something cash based.
At a few months from age 70, my thoughts are that the past 20 years have embedded expectations about getting off the payroll into your kids, whether that was intentional or not. Now, unless you want some very turbulent times, you get to live with the consequences.
51 year old Steelers/Michigan Wolverines fan/working anesthesiologist with family of 4 here….growing up in same generation I can relate…thanks for sharing your memories!
Happy birthday, glad to hear 55 isn’t awful
Appreciate the fantastic analysis and thoughts in energy!
Unfortunately I am one of those who must note how young you are. 67 awaits me in 22 days. Oh well. My 97 year old father just passed away in the nursing home on Good Friday evening after a 6+ year stay. I was blessed beyond belief for so long. I had visited the previous Saturday, and the last thing he said to me as I was about to walk out was "We sure had a lot of great times together". Wow
I'm compelled to comment on your previous ages ending in 5 trip through memory lane. Regarding the 70's Knicks, quite simply Walt Clyde Frazier was and still is the coolest NBA player ever. No one comes close. I was always an Illinois/Chicago guy, but I sure did like those Knicks teams as a youngster. As to the '94 Rangers, I'm nowhere near being a real hockey fan, but I have to scold you for just a passing reference to that Stanley Cup. Seriously! Even I remember this iconic bit of history:
My condolences for your father's passing. What an unbelievable and touching last words to you. Wow. Sounds like he had an amazing life.
And thank you regarding the posts. On robotaxi, I have seen them in L.A. Not Tesla's of course...pretty sure those were Waymos. On Musk, I don't personally have a strong view. And as I have noted, I have loved driving a Tesla the past 8 years now. It's the EV hockey stick forecasts that I have always taken issue with...and they are indeed being revised down.
Happy belated birthday from a fellow March birthday. I find myself on the other end of many of these comments having officially entered my mid 30s and adding the first new member to my family in the past 3 weeks. Thanks again for another great article Arjun!
Thank you RySci and enjoy your youth!!!!
A happy belated birthday as well. The truth I have found in my almost 65 years (next Saturday is the big day) is that there is always more to absorb and the more you do, the more you realize how little you know.
fortunately, earlier in my life I had a 2 year hiatus when my daughter was quite young and developed a marvelous relationship with her, so unlike that of mine with my late parents and it is the best thing I ever did.
One last question though regarding the questions about demand, Didn't we learn through Jevon's Paradox that efficiency does not reduce consumption, but rather increases it? As such, more efficiency would seem to point to continued increases in demand. To me, the question is, how long before enough people recognize that the unlucky 7 billion are not going to be deterred in their quest for a better life. the recent interview of the Guyanese President, Irfaan Ali, (https://x.com/NuzhatNazar/status/1776294838914150875) was exemplary in describing what seems very likely to be the view of all those who are currently energy poor. With that in mind, I suspect that the demand for Capex is going to be quite strong and there will be much more energy found over time.
Thank you Andy! Great to hear about you and your daughter...those work hiatus's are a pure gift.
Totally hear you on Jevon's Paradox. I actually want to look into examples where I would guess "saturation" allows efficiency gains to be more lasting. I'd agree that in the developing world we are far, far from that. In the mature regions, may be more possible that you could have some demand erosion.
Your offerings are consistently brilliant,Arjun...and as a 75 year old-which is 2X away for you-my take is that it is a trade off between the gradual decline of physical abilities and a deepening understanding of how truly fortunate we are to be alive and participate fully in the field of so many opportunities for personal growth that keep popping up.It gets better,amigo!!
In gratitude,A...Thank you!
Very kind of you to say Charles, thank you! And based on what I can see at 55, I think your "trade off" perspective is spot on. Arjun
I'm smack in the middle of your both. 65. I tell friends that aging is all about managing loss. The body slowly gives things up. And you have to adjust. OTOH, one of my favorite sayings is "The Owl of Minerva flies at dusk.". One of Minerva's animals was the owl; and one of Minerva's traits was wisdom. (Hence, the origin of the "wise old owl" of literature etc.). 55 is not quite dusk. More like late afternoon. But, you're almost there! : )
well said!
Thanks for another great post!From the personal to the industry analysis… all good!
Btw. I can’t believe how much my love being 66! Love giving money to my kids and family members.
Excellent health and well being is pure gold! (So grateful for good habits).
I’m betting you will do really well too! Don’t worry be happy may sound trite but it has never been more true!
Best to you and your family!
Thank you derek! And Congratulations to you on a great career!!!
Interesting point on giving money away...we are trying to figure that part out...
Regarding giving money away, our humble take is: Dollar amount is less important than direction, intention and regularity.
appreciate your perspective. On charitable items, we follow that philosophy and feel good about where we are and our forward plans. Its the kids/family part that we are less sure of...
Happy birthday for last weekend!
Thank you Blind Squirrel. And I would recommend to anyone that sees this comment to listen to your great interview on Forward Guidance podcast.
Thanks Arjun!
55 is young! Thanks for a good analysis. You mentioned that Goldman "noted an acceleration in hybrid sales". You might like me earlier post "Hybrids are a Pretty Good Compromise" -
https://alchristie.substack.com/p/hybrids-are-a-pretty-good-compromise
Thank you Al! and thanks for posting the link to your Substack.
Thank you Arjun. Happy Birthday.
Thank you Martin!
Always great to read a few personal notes that help connect the fantastic insights and expertise to a real person
Thank you so much Marcus.
Reading your note about the life stages I see a resemblance to my own life. By the time I read to age 45 I'm thinking "OK, what comes next?? Hopefully the years when you've got the major things mostly sorted out and can just start enjoying the ride!?".
- Note for the group, both letters are worth reading regarding peak demand and the role of the IEA: "House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) and Energy, Climate, and Grid Security Subcommittee Chair Jeff Duncan (R-SC) sent letters to Department of Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm and International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol regarding IEA's shift away from its core energy security mission..."
https://d1dth6e84htgma.cloudfront.net/04_03_24_Letter_to_Dr_Fatih_Birol_1a78d54414.pdf
https://d1dth6e84htgma.cloudfront.net/04_03_24_Letter_to_Secretary_Granholm_1_ea3986e75b.pdf
Thanks for posting all the good links in here. Much needed letters to the IEA and Sec'y Granholm.
I'm very glad to hear that you are broadening your consideration of metrics to include something cash based.
At a few months from age 70, my thoughts are that the past 20 years have embedded expectations about getting off the payroll into your kids, whether that was intentional or not. Now, unless you want some very turbulent times, you get to live with the consequences.
Paul
Thank you Paul...I've always tracksd the "CROCI" metric. It clearly needs to be a more meaningful part of how I look at things.
On the kids, yes, we will see how life transpires for them!
51 year old Steelers/Michigan Wolverines fan/working anesthesiologist with family of 4 here….growing up in same generation I can relate…thanks for sharing your memories!
Happy birthday, glad to hear 55 isn’t awful
Appreciate the fantastic analysis and thoughts in energy!
Thank you Eric, very much appreciated!
Good morning and happy belated birthday...
Unfortunately I am one of those who must note how young you are. 67 awaits me in 22 days. Oh well. My 97 year old father just passed away in the nursing home on Good Friday evening after a 6+ year stay. I was blessed beyond belief for so long. I had visited the previous Saturday, and the last thing he said to me as I was about to walk out was "We sure had a lot of great times together". Wow
I'm compelled to comment on your previous ages ending in 5 trip through memory lane. Regarding the 70's Knicks, quite simply Walt Clyde Frazier was and still is the coolest NBA player ever. No one comes close. I was always an Illinois/Chicago guy, but I sure did like those Knicks teams as a youngster. As to the '94 Rangers, I'm nowhere near being a real hockey fan, but I have to scold you for just a passing reference to that Stanley Cup. Seriously! Even I remember this iconic bit of history:
https://youtu.be/do3fICIYCR0?si=TuBzJyGe57Bow_lK
Thanks as always for outstanding analysis.
P.S. Is it just me, or does yesterday's Musk Robotaxi unveil announcement seem a bit contrived?
Douglas,
My condolences for your father's passing. What an unbelievable and touching last words to you. Wow. Sounds like he had an amazing life.
And thank you regarding the posts. On robotaxi, I have seen them in L.A. Not Tesla's of course...pretty sure those were Waymos. On Musk, I don't personally have a strong view. And as I have noted, I have loved driving a Tesla the past 8 years now. It's the EV hockey stick forecasts that I have always taken issue with...and they are indeed being revised down.
Regards,
Arjun