If you want more exposure, writing on SeekingAlpha might get the result you want. The reason seemingly intelligent people ignore all the problems inherent in renewables is probably a type of mass formation / group think, just like during the coronavirus lock downs. People don't want to stand out from the group. Regarding the super-cycle, what do you think of Vaclav Smil's contention that no one can predict oil prices? He brings as an example OPEC's predictions from 2004 and 2014 and how completely wrong they were and basically comes to the conclusion that oil prices are effectively random. I've got about 25% in oil since 2020, but am a bit scared by the possibility of extreme volatility...
Regarding music, I really like Disturbed The Vengeful One during the lock downs...
I am a huge fan of Vaclav Smil. Numbers Don't Lie is my favorite. I agree that many (most?) are not good at forecasting oil prices. But I do know some number of investors on both the commodities side and equites side that have successful track records either directly or indirectly with oil prices.
In my view, volatility is what it is. I don't view it as something to be positive or negative on...it is simply something to take into account. And in a world without meaningful CAPEX but otherwise underlying demand growth for oil, very high levels of volatility to me is inevitable. To the upside and to the downside. Whether one chooses to try to trade that or not I think comes down to what one's investment objectives are, ability to tolerate downside risk, a recognition that it is possible to NOT recover from downsides if the long-term view proves wrong, and the risk of missing upside by trading out to avoid downside risk. It really is a matter of personal preference on what one is good (or not good) at.
Great work...it would be great if you synced up with Michael Schellenberger and Bjorn Lomborg because firms like your old employer are pushing fantasy land narratives about renewables that will cost clients money. I also agree that innovation is cyclical but we have nuclear staring us the face which solves 80% of the problem as you know.
Another great author is Steven E. Koonin, who wrote the book Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters Hardcover – April 27, 2021
Thank you J J. I have met Michael Schellenberger..."Apocalypse Never" is essentially a Super-Spiked theme. I have read Bjorn's book as well. As for GS, there are a range of views as you would expect at a large, global bank. I am a huge fan of Currie, Mehta, Della Vigna, and their respective teams. I am sure the firm has some folks who push the EU energy & climate narrative around Renewables, which I don't support. It is what it is.
"I was almost certainly approaching the flatter part of the GHIN reduction curve." ... perhaps the best line of the entire piece!
On wind and solar, I would add that the discussion in political circles seems to ignore the problem of energy density (watts produced per square meter). Wind and solar takes a LOT of space. And there is a hidden cost that, besides the problem of inefficient intermittent energy within an electrical grid that has to balance supply and demand.
It's one thing to put solar farms in the desert in the Western US. It's another to use up valuable farmland, or green space in the Eastern half of the country.
Maybe because they haven’t read Vaclav Smil’s book “Power Density: A Key To Understanding Energy Sources and Uses”. One of the best books I’ve ever read and completely changed my perspective on the issue.
If you want more exposure, writing on SeekingAlpha might get the result you want. The reason seemingly intelligent people ignore all the problems inherent in renewables is probably a type of mass formation / group think, just like during the coronavirus lock downs. People don't want to stand out from the group. Regarding the super-cycle, what do you think of Vaclav Smil's contention that no one can predict oil prices? He brings as an example OPEC's predictions from 2004 and 2014 and how completely wrong they were and basically comes to the conclusion that oil prices are effectively random. I've got about 25% in oil since 2020, but am a bit scared by the possibility of extreme volatility...
Regarding music, I really like Disturbed The Vengeful One during the lock downs...
https://youtu.be/8nW-IPrzM1g?t=19
I am a huge fan of Vaclav Smil. Numbers Don't Lie is my favorite. I agree that many (most?) are not good at forecasting oil prices. But I do know some number of investors on both the commodities side and equites side that have successful track records either directly or indirectly with oil prices.
In my view, volatility is what it is. I don't view it as something to be positive or negative on...it is simply something to take into account. And in a world without meaningful CAPEX but otherwise underlying demand growth for oil, very high levels of volatility to me is inevitable. To the upside and to the downside. Whether one chooses to try to trade that or not I think comes down to what one's investment objectives are, ability to tolerate downside risk, a recognition that it is possible to NOT recover from downsides if the long-term view proves wrong, and the risk of missing upside by trading out to avoid downside risk. It really is a matter of personal preference on what one is good (or not good) at.
And Vigna and Currie in particular has been dead on
Currie and Mehta are very solid
I found this recent interview with Currie very interesting: https://mebfaber.com/2022/09/26/e445-jeff-currie/
Jeff is a friend and one of my closest former colleagues.
Great work...it would be great if you synced up with Michael Schellenberger and Bjorn Lomborg because firms like your old employer are pushing fantasy land narratives about renewables that will cost clients money. I also agree that innovation is cyclical but we have nuclear staring us the face which solves 80% of the problem as you know.
Another great author is Steven E. Koonin, who wrote the book Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters Hardcover – April 27, 2021
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1950665798/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1
Yes, I know Steve and liked his book.
Thank you J J. I have met Michael Schellenberger..."Apocalypse Never" is essentially a Super-Spiked theme. I have read Bjorn's book as well. As for GS, there are a range of views as you would expect at a large, global bank. I am a huge fan of Currie, Mehta, Della Vigna, and their respective teams. I am sure the firm has some folks who push the EU energy & climate narrative around Renewables, which I don't support. It is what it is.
Arjun - email me if you'd like to connect whicks1956@gmail.com
"I was almost certainly approaching the flatter part of the GHIN reduction curve." ... perhaps the best line of the entire piece!
On wind and solar, I would add that the discussion in political circles seems to ignore the problem of energy density (watts produced per square meter). Wind and solar takes a LOT of space. And there is a hidden cost that, besides the problem of inefficient intermittent energy within an electrical grid that has to balance supply and demand.
It's one thing to put solar farms in the desert in the Western US. It's another to use up valuable farmland, or green space in the Eastern half of the country.
It is mystifying why so many people that do know better (not counting politicians) are ignoring the energy density issues. I have no explanation why.
Maybe because they haven’t read Vaclav Smil’s book “Power Density: A Key To Understanding Energy Sources and Uses”. One of the best books I’ve ever read and completely changed my perspective on the issue.