the long-term cycles tend to be 10-15 years up, 10-15 years down. I would hold that the 10-15 years up will hold this go round, but with massive volatility along the way. So for trader types, it might be more like 1-2 years up and down within the broader trend.
Thanks Arjun, great video. BTW have you read Michael Kao's lastest posts on Twitter and summarized recently on his Substack Notes? Very interesting argument that Opec+ move was "premature" and will cause the Fed to have to raise rates more and will lead to demand elasticity in the long run via more severe demand destruction. I guess we'll have to see how it plays out, but if he's right wouldn't that impact CapEx spending in this cycle?
I have it in my inbox to read...but the basic premise I have heard him make. I am a big Michael Kao fan. We overlapped at GS, but really only know him from Twitter. His USD Wrecking Ball thesis is outstanding.
Thank you very much!
Great explanation; how long oil cycles usually are?
the long-term cycles tend to be 10-15 years up, 10-15 years down. I would hold that the 10-15 years up will hold this go round, but with massive volatility along the way. So for trader types, it might be more like 1-2 years up and down within the broader trend.
Full of insight. Thank you!
Thank you!
Thanks Arjun, great video. BTW have you read Michael Kao's lastest posts on Twitter and summarized recently on his Substack Notes? Very interesting argument that Opec+ move was "premature" and will cause the Fed to have to raise rates more and will lead to demand elasticity in the long run via more severe demand destruction. I guess we'll have to see how it plays out, but if he's right wouldn't that impact CapEx spending in this cycle?
I have it in my inbox to read...but the basic premise I have heard him make. I am a big Michael Kao fan. We overlapped at GS, but really only know him from Twitter. His USD Wrecking Ball thesis is outstanding.
EXCELLENT!!!!!
thank you!