Super-Spiked Podcast
Super-Spiked Videopods (EP26): OPEC, Trading Noise, and Oil Super-Cycles

Super-Spiked Videopods (EP26): OPEC, Trading Noise, and Oil Super-Cycles

Navigating The Energy Crisis Era

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

2023 06 23 Trading Noise Vs Super Cycles
2.25MB ∙ PDF file

This week's video brings together our last two written posts that questioned the market's obsession with OPEC noise and short-term inventory changes, especially when contemplating the potential for an oil super-cycle. We observe that inventory movements drive the front-end of the curve, but do not offer insight on the long-term cycle. It is the long-end of the forward that gives the signal as to whether we are in a trading market or a super cycle. So far, it is the former; hence our use of the "Super Vol" rather than "Super Cycle" phraseology.

The key to a rise in long-dated prices would be a combination of US shale oil supply disappointments relative to rig count and signs that global GDP was accelerating and could maintain momentum with higher spot oil. The steepening and growing maturity of the non-OPEC supply curve, coupled with moderate global oil demand growth, suggests a pinch point will likely come, it just hasn't obviously arrived yet.

The final area discussed is the impact of "Super Vol" vs "Super-Cycle" on sector profitability. Perhaps paradoxically, a volatile, "grind-it-out" macro backdrop may be more conducive to sustain advantaged ROCE than one where a super-cycle materializes. Avoiding the ROCE "quadrilateral of death" that we have previously discussed is a key objective for individual companies and the sector broadly.

Finally, we'd like to highlight two appearances from this past week. I was on Andrew Stotz's "My Worst Investment Ever" podcast (here), where he discussed his regret of ignoring sector ROCE erosion during the second half of the Super-Spike era. He also joined Canadian portfolio manager Eric Nuttall on a Twitter Spaces (here) hosted by Twitter #EFT commodities super-star Tracy Shuchart (@chigrl). Key themes discussed included Super Vol vs Super-Cycle, the outlook for Canadian energy, sector profitability trends, and perspectives on energy transition.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

  • All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at

  • Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

  • YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

    Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

  • Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.


I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

  • Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

  • This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.


Super-Spiked Podcast
Super-Spiked Podcast takes aim at a messy energy transition era as energy & climate policies clash with markets and geopolitics.