Arjun, it may seem this would be an obvious correlation, have you seen data that correlates oil + natural gas + coal (fossil fuel) consumption versus any accepted measure of wealth and prosperity? The proxies for prosperity would look like per capita GDP, education levels, real estate valuation, etc.
The Scandinavian countries that have been blessed with ample hydro power or geothermal may fall off the curve a bit, possibly even France and Germany, but this could be interesting data to look at.
Aug 23, 2023·edited Aug 23, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti
For the group, for a steel-man version of a faster energy transition away from fossil fuels I'd suggest this 2012 debate between Stephen Chu (Nobel prize in physics 1997, Chu was the U.S. Secretary of Energy at the time), and Bill Gates.
I'd just point out these two exchanges because they represent the two points of view in the debate:
Chu at the 5:10 mark (this was the first time I can personally remember hearing the landlines-to-cell phones argument): "the combination of photovoltaics and cheap energy storage will go viral the same way that cell phones went viral in the developing world... cell phones leapfrogged past the landline network, we see photovoltaics as leapfrogging past the normal grid". (Note: watch Gates' expression as Chu is making this argument LOL!)
6:30 Gates' response: *Smiling* "There are natural things about the energy system which, because of the gigantic capital equipment involved and the nature of the technologies involved, make it move a lot slower than the IT revolution. ...The IT revolution is the exception that has warped people's minds about how things can work." Gates then goes on to give a long list of ways that the energy industry is fundamentally different than the IT industry.
Chu at 33:46 regarding large-scale electricity storage: "I don't see in the immediate future 1 gigawatt-day worth of battery storage other than [pumped water and compressed air storage], but again, lots of things can happen, the Wright brothers flew in 1903 and we landed a man on the moon in 1969".
I think we can say Chu gives a wide variety of optimistic arguments for a faster energy transition, and Gates takes a more measured approach. Food for thought!
It makes me think that the same peak demand arguments have been around for awhile now, and also kind of shocking that someone like Stephen Chu would talk about PV solar leapfrogging the grid just like cell phones did.
Thank you as usual Arjun. Hard to understand sometimes when someone else doesn't see something that seems so self evident to you. I don't think it is fair to say it is "right wing" to push back against renewable energy. In a modern society energy needs to be available 24/7, reliable and affordable. It is not "right wing" to point out that so far renewable energy has failed in all 3 areas. Heavily subsidizing it by governments will not change the reality. The technology will advance and when it does renewable will become a major energy contributor. If the government wants to help it should do so through research funding rather than subsidizing projects that are not yet up to the standard required. That's my opinion and I don't see it as "right wing" or "left wing" issue. Perhaps one that sees capitalism as better than socialism.
The point wasn't that all pushback against wind/solar is "right wing." Rather solar/wind have a role to play in the power generation mix of countries, a point not always acknowledged by the "climate is always changing" crowd. Agree with your points.
Great job Arjun....I agree this maybe one of your best. What I can accomplish with 5 gallons of diesel in an Kubota M7060 on a Michigan Christmas tree farm is amazing. That's how I used part of my 13 barrels yesterday...keep up the great analysis.
Arjun, it may seem this would be an obvious correlation, have you seen data that correlates oil + natural gas + coal (fossil fuel) consumption versus any accepted measure of wealth and prosperity? The proxies for prosperity would look like per capita GDP, education levels, real estate valuation, etc.
The Scandinavian countries that have been blessed with ample hydro power or geothermal may fall off the curve a bit, possibly even France and Germany, but this could be interesting data to look at.
Stuart, yes, it is basically a 1:1 graph. you become wealthy by using energy, which is overwhelmingly oil, gas, coal.
For the group, for a steel-man version of a faster energy transition away from fossil fuels I'd suggest this 2012 debate between Stephen Chu (Nobel prize in physics 1997, Chu was the U.S. Secretary of Energy at the time), and Bill Gates.
Fireside Chat: Bill Gates and Dr. Steven Chu | 2012 ARPA-E Summit - YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__nt_X46eR8
I'd just point out these two exchanges because they represent the two points of view in the debate:
Chu at the 5:10 mark (this was the first time I can personally remember hearing the landlines-to-cell phones argument): "the combination of photovoltaics and cheap energy storage will go viral the same way that cell phones went viral in the developing world... cell phones leapfrogged past the landline network, we see photovoltaics as leapfrogging past the normal grid". (Note: watch Gates' expression as Chu is making this argument LOL!)
6:30 Gates' response: *Smiling* "There are natural things about the energy system which, because of the gigantic capital equipment involved and the nature of the technologies involved, make it move a lot slower than the IT revolution. ...The IT revolution is the exception that has warped people's minds about how things can work." Gates then goes on to give a long list of ways that the energy industry is fundamentally different than the IT industry.
Chu at 33:46 regarding large-scale electricity storage: "I don't see in the immediate future 1 gigawatt-day worth of battery storage other than [pumped water and compressed air storage], but again, lots of things can happen, the Wright brothers flew in 1903 and we landed a man on the moon in 1969".
I think we can say Chu gives a wide variety of optimistic arguments for a faster energy transition, and Gates takes a more measured approach. Food for thought!
thanks for highlighting this old video!
It makes me think that the same peak demand arguments have been around for awhile now, and also kind of shocking that someone like Stephen Chu would talk about PV solar leapfrogging the grid just like cell phones did.
Thank you as usual Arjun. Hard to understand sometimes when someone else doesn't see something that seems so self evident to you. I don't think it is fair to say it is "right wing" to push back against renewable energy. In a modern society energy needs to be available 24/7, reliable and affordable. It is not "right wing" to point out that so far renewable energy has failed in all 3 areas. Heavily subsidizing it by governments will not change the reality. The technology will advance and when it does renewable will become a major energy contributor. If the government wants to help it should do so through research funding rather than subsidizing projects that are not yet up to the standard required. That's my opinion and I don't see it as "right wing" or "left wing" issue. Perhaps one that sees capitalism as better than socialism.
The point wasn't that all pushback against wind/solar is "right wing." Rather solar/wind have a role to play in the power generation mix of countries, a point not always acknowledged by the "climate is always changing" crowd. Agree with your points.
Great job Arjun....I agree this maybe one of your best. What I can accomplish with 5 gallons of diesel in an Kubota M7060 on a Michigan Christmas tree farm is amazing. That's how I used part of my 13 barrels yesterday...keep up the great analysis.
Thank you! and if you are in Michigan, you are probably using closer to 20 bbls a year! (as am I on the East Coast)
A powerful message and one of your best videopods!
Thank you RySci!
Thx, Arjun, for presenting the info in a very succinct and unbiased manner. Always insightful!
Thank you Abbas