Hard to refute your global demand case re: 1.4 billion club. However, if one believes that the U.S./world political/geopolitical/social/economic fault lines are all converging to a major crisis (see Neil Howe, "The Fourth Turning is Here") in the immediate future, hard to make the case for being long traditional energy or most stocks for that matter. In particular, a conflict with China (draconian economic sanctions or full decoupling of Chimerica, let alone a kinetic clash over Taiwan) would be a disaster for oil demand/prices. Such pessimism (realism?) is bound to weigh on energy stock valuations in the period ahead. Call it the Big Elephant in the room. Some commentary on this "what if" is needed.
no doubt, energy equities are still equities. that type of event that would impact broader stock market would almost certainly also hurt energy equities.
Once again Arjun, thank you very much for your analysis. Your analysis is greatly appreciated. Also, I enjoy hearing “on a personal note”. I wish you were my neighbor so we could cook out and drink some beers together. I would wish to play golf with you but you 8 1/2 doesn’t match well with my 36.
Hard to refute your global demand case re: 1.4 billion club. However, if one believes that the U.S./world political/geopolitical/social/economic fault lines are all converging to a major crisis (see Neil Howe, "The Fourth Turning is Here") in the immediate future, hard to make the case for being long traditional energy or most stocks for that matter. In particular, a conflict with China (draconian economic sanctions or full decoupling of Chimerica, let alone a kinetic clash over Taiwan) would be a disaster for oil demand/prices. Such pessimism (realism?) is bound to weigh on energy stock valuations in the period ahead. Call it the Big Elephant in the room. Some commentary on this "what if" is needed.
no doubt, energy equities are still equities. that type of event that would impact broader stock market would almost certainly also hurt energy equities.
Once again Arjun, thank you very much for your analysis. Your analysis is greatly appreciated. Also, I enjoy hearing “on a personal note”. I wish you were my neighbor so we could cook out and drink some beers together. I would wish to play golf with you but you 8 1/2 doesn’t match well with my 36.
that's the beauty of the GHIN system...anyone can play with anyone!
excellent
thank you!
“Are we therefore just being polite when we say new energies have a future?”
Can I risk being a little impolite in saying that in light of solar’s performance the question borders on absurd?
https://twitter.com/GregorMacdonald/status/1518248082705502213
There is a broad reasonable middle ground that this blog also occupies.
Or as Doomberg so eloquently says (paraphrasing): In the battle between physics and platitudes, physics is undefeated ...
that's good