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In what is likely to be our final Super-Spiked for 2023, we provide a 2024 preview with the theme of “phasing-in profitable growth.” In the prior two Super-Spiked posts, we have discussed key takeaways from 2023, including ROCE resilience for traditional energy, the significant pressure facing many new energies business models, the massive total addressable market (TAM) for global energy demand, especially given the significant unmet energy needs of the other 7 (soon to be 9) billion people on Earth, and the ongoing “Super Vol” macro backdrop.
For traditional energy in 2024, we believe leading companies will be able to articulate and demonstrate what their unique value proposition is. ROCE improvement in and of itself is not enough; there is a need to demonstrate long-term profitability resilience and articulate a positive equity story.
For new energies, the questions are more around figuring out which new businesses will scale excluding subsidies. When we look at the massive energy TAM and take into account the desire among developing countries to have geopolitically secure energy sources, there is a major role for new energies to play, even before also taking into account environmental objectives. Sorting through the rubble of this year’s sell-off, or considering new opportunities, will be the focus.
As 2023 winds down, we would like to wish all Super-Spiked subscribers a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy New Year, and Happy Holiday Season! We will see you early in 2024.
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⚖️Disclaimer
I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.
📜 Credits
Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.
This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.
Super-Spiked Videopods (EP34): Phasing-In Profitable Growth: 2024 Preview