I wonder if we will look back on this period and think "How did anyone in the 2020s believe that oil, coal and natural gas would be phased out within a decade or two? How could anyone have taken that idea seriously?" But, we have seen this before with the end of coal predicted since the 1860s, albeit Jevons was talking domestically not globally:
"I must point out the painful fact that such a rate of growth will before long render our consumption of coal comparable with the total supply. In the increasing depth and difficulty of coal mining we shall meet that vague, but inevitable boundary that will stop our progress." - Jevons, 1865
Do you think this generation's 'peak demand' idea is delaying CAPEX in true long cycle projects and so creating more volatility? I know you've addressed this before but it seems like at this point in the cycle almost everyone is still shy about committing to the mega, long-term, projects (maybe Guyana is the exception)?
I wonder if we will look back on this period and think "How did anyone in the 2020s believe that oil, coal and natural gas would be phased out within a decade or two? How could anyone have taken that idea seriously?" But, we have seen this before with the end of coal predicted since the 1860s, albeit Jevons was talking domestically not globally:
"I must point out the painful fact that such a rate of growth will before long render our consumption of coal comparable with the total supply. In the increasing depth and difficulty of coal mining we shall meet that vague, but inevitable boundary that will stop our progress." - Jevons, 1865
Do you think this generation's 'peak demand' idea is delaying CAPEX in true long cycle projects and so creating more volatility? I know you've addressed this before but it seems like at this point in the cycle almost everyone is still shy about committing to the mega, long-term, projects (maybe Guyana is the exception)?