I also share the sense of excitement about 2025 (let's see how that comment sounds this time next year LOL!).
Do you think the general downward earnings revision we've seen in the last two years for the O&G sector could be positively affected by the new US administration and by the start of the cultural shift away from the 'Net Zero by 2050'/'Energy Transition' narrative? How big of a factor is that narrative for the market not recognizing the earnings potential of the sector?
- Super-Spiked's #1 Super-Fan in the Great White North
Investor, I'd say the new administration can contribute to a recovery in "cost of capital" that is otherwise coming as "The Energy Transition" and all its madness and concerns about peak demand go away. On the EPS cycle, the recovery in nat gas prices will help as would resilient oil. I don't think the admin can have as big of an impact directly. Clearly one of the big debates on oil will be tougher enforcement on Iran and Venezuela, maybe Russia, vs higher Saudi and their preference to otherwise have lower energy prices.
Happy new year. There is a lot to chew on in your podcast today. On the power super cycle and opportunities for traditional oil and gas companies, I wonder if they would consider going back into mining and processing uranium? It stays within their primary fuel portfolio and the sector brings understanding of both above ground and below ground risks on development. The incumbent mining companies are focused on copper and other hard rock minerals which is good, but we will not fuel the nuclear renaissance without both uranium mining and processing in the US. Long term play or too risky?
Hi Deborah. It's a great question. I'd bet they've looked at whether some version of "mining" makes sense. XOM of course is dabbling in lithium. I think the same question holds as would with the power sector, how do returns compare. Copper sector ROCE actually looks quite similar to oil...so then its a question of access to mines, expertise, etc. But I agree with your general sentiment that we/they need to evaluate future opportunities.
During the 2016 election, it was widely repeated that as Secretary of State, “Hillary gave US uranium rights to Russia” as part of her great “reset button”. I don’t know how truthful that statement was, or how impactful it would be in 2025+, but I’m curious if you have any insight on the topic. I’m grateful as always for your wisdom, and wish you all the best in 2025!
Arjun,
I also share the sense of excitement about 2025 (let's see how that comment sounds this time next year LOL!).
Do you think the general downward earnings revision we've seen in the last two years for the O&G sector could be positively affected by the new US administration and by the start of the cultural shift away from the 'Net Zero by 2050'/'Energy Transition' narrative? How big of a factor is that narrative for the market not recognizing the earnings potential of the sector?
- Super-Spiked's #1 Super-Fan in the Great White North
Investor, I'd say the new administration can contribute to a recovery in "cost of capital" that is otherwise coming as "The Energy Transition" and all its madness and concerns about peak demand go away. On the EPS cycle, the recovery in nat gas prices will help as would resilient oil. I don't think the admin can have as big of an impact directly. Clearly one of the big debates on oil will be tougher enforcement on Iran and Venezuela, maybe Russia, vs higher Saudi and their preference to otherwise have lower energy prices.
and thank you!
Happy new year. There is a lot to chew on in your podcast today. On the power super cycle and opportunities for traditional oil and gas companies, I wonder if they would consider going back into mining and processing uranium? It stays within their primary fuel portfolio and the sector brings understanding of both above ground and below ground risks on development. The incumbent mining companies are focused on copper and other hard rock minerals which is good, but we will not fuel the nuclear renaissance without both uranium mining and processing in the US. Long term play or too risky?
Hi Deborah. It's a great question. I'd bet they've looked at whether some version of "mining" makes sense. XOM of course is dabbling in lithium. I think the same question holds as would with the power sector, how do returns compare. Copper sector ROCE actually looks quite similar to oil...so then its a question of access to mines, expertise, etc. But I agree with your general sentiment that we/they need to evaluate future opportunities.
During the 2016 election, it was widely repeated that as Secretary of State, “Hillary gave US uranium rights to Russia” as part of her great “reset button”. I don’t know how truthful that statement was, or how impactful it would be in 2025+, but I’m curious if you have any insight on the topic. I’m grateful as always for your wisdom, and wish you all the best in 2025!