It’s also different for an investor vs someone running a business. As Buffet says, timing market tops and bottoms is a fools game. More important to be directionally correct. Richard Spears and I will discuss this in an oilfield service context (the world we know best) first Wednesday of May on Wed(NSI)day. Feel free to join us!
Keep calm and carry on! A question that has been in my mind. “Is being early really the same as being wrong? “ I think this is a good discussion topic for helping people think about running a business and investing.
I was definitely looking forward to Super Spiked today. Thanks for keeping the long perspective in mind, it sets you apart from most analysis which just cannot avoid getting pulled into short termism.
Your crisis comments were a walk down memory lane - my first crisis was the aftermath of the Dot Com bubble, then 9-11 when the market was closed (I remember being thankful for that because the last thing anyone wanted to think about that week was the S&P), and of course 2008 and COVID. Strangely it is hard to recall much about the peaks and bull markets but the crises stand out clearly to me as having their particular characters and memories about what was happening in the moment. I still remember the moment someone told me "Just find a television and turn on any channel" on the morning of September 11th, watching the Rick Santelli 'Chicago Tea Party' rant on a TV hung up in our office, the Jon Stewart ambush interview in 2009, and seeing hospital tents and people in hazmat suits in Central Park as the markets nosedived in 2020.
It might be worth a Super Spiked retrospective about the Big Ones, what they were like to navigate day by day, much like Ray Dalio's approach in Big Debt Crises. I agree that the April 2nd Liberation Day tariffs (it would have been more appropriate if they were announced April 1rst!) are not on par with the Big Ones, but please keep us updated on what you think.
Investor, It is always great to hear from you and thank you for your comments. And you have accurately predicted either the next or a future post about going through past down cycles. But a good ida on what the "day to day" was like rather than just going through a bunch of numbers. Hope you are well and surviving all the noise and craziness.
I've been volunteering in two elections, we had a provincial and then federal election now, so I've been busy. The tarrifs seem to be everyone's obsession lately, as I sat down to dinner this evening I overheard people at the table saying the lettuce was Canadian-only. I wasn't sure whether they were serious, so I jokingly asked the waiter whether our carrots were also Canadian. A few minutes later the waiter came back and, completely seriously, told me the carrots were "from Chatham Ontario." People are really losing their minds about this!
It’s also different for an investor vs someone running a business. As Buffet says, timing market tops and bottoms is a fools game. More important to be directionally correct. Richard Spears and I will discuss this in an oilfield service context (the world we know best) first Wednesday of May on Wed(NSI)day. Feel free to join us!
100% Steve!!!
Keep calm and carry on! A question that has been in my mind. “Is being early really the same as being wrong? “ I think this is a good discussion topic for helping people think about running a business and investing.
100% being early can be wrong...kind of depends how early and how wrong while being early.
I coined a phrase years ago and use it to run my businesses.
“Risk =/= Downside, rather Risk = Uncertainty which = Opportunity for the disciplined”
Onward and upward Super-Spiked family!
Love it NTX!
Hello Arjun,
I was definitely looking forward to Super Spiked today. Thanks for keeping the long perspective in mind, it sets you apart from most analysis which just cannot avoid getting pulled into short termism.
Your crisis comments were a walk down memory lane - my first crisis was the aftermath of the Dot Com bubble, then 9-11 when the market was closed (I remember being thankful for that because the last thing anyone wanted to think about that week was the S&P), and of course 2008 and COVID. Strangely it is hard to recall much about the peaks and bull markets but the crises stand out clearly to me as having their particular characters and memories about what was happening in the moment. I still remember the moment someone told me "Just find a television and turn on any channel" on the morning of September 11th, watching the Rick Santelli 'Chicago Tea Party' rant on a TV hung up in our office, the Jon Stewart ambush interview in 2009, and seeing hospital tents and people in hazmat suits in Central Park as the markets nosedived in 2020.
It might be worth a Super Spiked retrospective about the Big Ones, what they were like to navigate day by day, much like Ray Dalio's approach in Big Debt Crises. I agree that the April 2nd Liberation Day tariffs (it would have been more appropriate if they were announced April 1rst!) are not on par with the Big Ones, but please keep us updated on what you think.
Investor, It is always great to hear from you and thank you for your comments. And you have accurately predicted either the next or a future post about going through past down cycles. But a good ida on what the "day to day" was like rather than just going through a bunch of numbers. Hope you are well and surviving all the noise and craziness.
Thanks Arjun,
I've been volunteering in two elections, we had a provincial and then federal election now, so I've been busy. The tarrifs seem to be everyone's obsession lately, as I sat down to dinner this evening I overheard people at the table saying the lettuce was Canadian-only. I wasn't sure whether they were serious, so I jokingly asked the waiter whether our carrots were also Canadian. A few minutes later the waiter came back and, completely seriously, told me the carrots were "from Chatham Ontario." People are really losing their minds about this!
this is such a great story. Canadain carrots!!! awesome.