Arjun,I would have thought you were deep in the weeds of the Augusta golfcourse,but no...here you are,providing the very FIRST clear eyed assessment that the World order has indeed changed, and it will behoove us not to "wish our life away"
The financial media-to a man or woman,is dead set against change-as they should be.They had grown wealthy on the back of turning their screens red with 'breaking news',and basically got fat and happy.Nothing wrong with either of those conditions,but in my experience,they are not motivating factors to recognize or accept change.
At this point,clear eyed,objective and emotionally unattatched thinking are essential elements to 'do the best job we can,today"
And once again,here comes Arjun,with a brilliant attempt at a hole in one...and even if you're only on the green,you are closer than anyone I've heard so far.
Charles, I really appreciate your exceptionally kind and thoughtful comment. The world is changing is indeed the point. I have been asked why I did not come out with fire and fury against the tariffs, etc. It is because the world is changing and needs to change. Our "twin deficits" as we used to call them were not sustainable. Change is always messy. Over-reacting to Trump's style (love or hate)...or even his specific actions...in my view doesn't help get to "what is the right call" which is our equity analyst objective.
And it's been a cold and rainy spring so am going to get out this morning for 18 for the first "real" round where are greens are all open, etc. And looking forward to Rory vs Bryson this afternoon!
Thanks for resisting the intense black hole gravitational pull of the hot take. Once you go there, there's no escape!
2008 felt like a large crisis but within the framework of the post-WW2 global order (U.S. and allies dominant, general movement in favour of globalism, free trade and democracy, trans-national institutions like IMF, UN, World Bank, pax Americana, etc.). With 2008 the post-WW2 global order was shaken but survived and made necessary adjustments within the framework to continue. This trade war feels like a smaller earthquake compared to '08, but caused by a much deeper tectonic shift of the global order itself away from free trade and globalism, away from open borders and towards a multipolar world order. Ray Dalio is great on this subject, if anyone doesn't already read him.
Assuming the new, multipolar, world order is more protectionist, I'm curious about how US energy producers will fare in this new environment?
Definitely a blow-by-blow account or podcast of your experience during the 2008 crisis would be great reading/listening, I remember each day in '08 clearly. Given that Goldman was at the centre of it, that would be financial history worth recording, a lot of experience gets lost when people retire and don't write their memoirs.
Investor, thank you as always for your comments but also great suggestions. I WISH I had journaled during 2008. not my thing but now wish it was. Perhaps I can try to recreate it and I do have all my research notes, which might help.
you have got to my exact point: in this multi-aligned, multi-polar world we are now in: what does this mean for energy companies, macro, etc.
The thread line from the Greenspan put, to US invading Iraq, to GFC, to QE forever, to COVID, to COVID money printing is a long one. I think I am lucky that my career started before the Greenspan put and I was at least alive during the 1970s and 1980s.
I hope you are well. I always look forward to your engagement here.
Thanks Arjun. That 2008 analysis would be really interesting. I love the journal-style history because it preserves the crucial element of what you knew and what you did not know as it happened in real time, which is obviously a huge factor in decision making. I find history and analysis that takes a retrospective 'god-like' view where the author writes after the fact knowing what all the players were doing, how events would turn out, and has total knowledge of all important information loses that. Maybe a project to put on the backburner...
Big fan of Arjun. If all this trade war nonsense were to actually occur it would be catastrophic for the economy overall and the energy business. 40%+ long term loss across the board - revenue, profits, values. But we live in a world where no one dares to say things like that - unless your initials are DJT you need to speak in hints and euphemisms and optimistic tones.
Telling the truth is now seen as an inflammatory thing. The good news is that Trump's vanity will probably back off all of this but it's probably going to be a slower and more expensive process than if Arjun, Jamie Dimon etc would just - could just - speak honestly and say what they mean.
Rich, thank you for your comment. This is the first time I have been in the same sentence as Jamie Dimon which I love!!! (big fan of his). I am trying to speak as honestly as I can. I have been on Wall Street for 33 years so am definitely not a tariff person by instinct or analysis. But change is here and arguably is needed. Our twin deficits as we used to call them are totally unsustainable. My approach is that the fire and fury (which isn't necessarily what you asked for) against Trump's style and actions doesn't help one analyze the outcome. I am also trying to stick to the impact on Energy as opposed to what is the optimal trade and geopolitical policy to solve our broader issues. But I appreciate your reading and engaging and will consider some sort of more direct commentary on the specific policies. Thank you, Arjun
Arjun,I would have thought you were deep in the weeds of the Augusta golfcourse,but no...here you are,providing the very FIRST clear eyed assessment that the World order has indeed changed, and it will behoove us not to "wish our life away"
The financial media-to a man or woman,is dead set against change-as they should be.They had grown wealthy on the back of turning their screens red with 'breaking news',and basically got fat and happy.Nothing wrong with either of those conditions,but in my experience,they are not motivating factors to recognize or accept change.
At this point,clear eyed,objective and emotionally unattatched thinking are essential elements to 'do the best job we can,today"
And once again,here comes Arjun,with a brilliant attempt at a hole in one...and even if you're only on the green,you are closer than anyone I've heard so far.
Many Thanks..
Charles, I really appreciate your exceptionally kind and thoughtful comment. The world is changing is indeed the point. I have been asked why I did not come out with fire and fury against the tariffs, etc. It is because the world is changing and needs to change. Our "twin deficits" as we used to call them were not sustainable. Change is always messy. Over-reacting to Trump's style (love or hate)...or even his specific actions...in my view doesn't help get to "what is the right call" which is our equity analyst objective.
And it's been a cold and rainy spring so am going to get out this morning for 18 for the first "real" round where are greens are all open, etc. And looking forward to Rory vs Bryson this afternoon!
Thanks for resisting the intense black hole gravitational pull of the hot take. Once you go there, there's no escape!
2008 felt like a large crisis but within the framework of the post-WW2 global order (U.S. and allies dominant, general movement in favour of globalism, free trade and democracy, trans-national institutions like IMF, UN, World Bank, pax Americana, etc.). With 2008 the post-WW2 global order was shaken but survived and made necessary adjustments within the framework to continue. This trade war feels like a smaller earthquake compared to '08, but caused by a much deeper tectonic shift of the global order itself away from free trade and globalism, away from open borders and towards a multipolar world order. Ray Dalio is great on this subject, if anyone doesn't already read him.
Assuming the new, multipolar, world order is more protectionist, I'm curious about how US energy producers will fare in this new environment?
Definitely a blow-by-blow account or podcast of your experience during the 2008 crisis would be great reading/listening, I remember each day in '08 clearly. Given that Goldman was at the centre of it, that would be financial history worth recording, a lot of experience gets lost when people retire and don't write their memoirs.
Investor, thank you as always for your comments but also great suggestions. I WISH I had journaled during 2008. not my thing but now wish it was. Perhaps I can try to recreate it and I do have all my research notes, which might help.
you have got to my exact point: in this multi-aligned, multi-polar world we are now in: what does this mean for energy companies, macro, etc.
The thread line from the Greenspan put, to US invading Iraq, to GFC, to QE forever, to COVID, to COVID money printing is a long one. I think I am lucky that my career started before the Greenspan put and I was at least alive during the 1970s and 1980s.
I hope you are well. I always look forward to your engagement here.
Thanks Arjun. That 2008 analysis would be really interesting. I love the journal-style history because it preserves the crucial element of what you knew and what you did not know as it happened in real time, which is obviously a huge factor in decision making. I find history and analysis that takes a retrospective 'god-like' view where the author writes after the fact knowing what all the players were doing, how events would turn out, and has total knowledge of all important information loses that. Maybe a project to put on the backburner...
Big fan of Arjun. If all this trade war nonsense were to actually occur it would be catastrophic for the economy overall and the energy business. 40%+ long term loss across the board - revenue, profits, values. But we live in a world where no one dares to say things like that - unless your initials are DJT you need to speak in hints and euphemisms and optimistic tones.
Telling the truth is now seen as an inflammatory thing. The good news is that Trump's vanity will probably back off all of this but it's probably going to be a slower and more expensive process than if Arjun, Jamie Dimon etc would just - could just - speak honestly and say what they mean.
Rich, thank you for your comment. This is the first time I have been in the same sentence as Jamie Dimon which I love!!! (big fan of his). I am trying to speak as honestly as I can. I have been on Wall Street for 33 years so am definitely not a tariff person by instinct or analysis. But change is here and arguably is needed. Our twin deficits as we used to call them are totally unsustainable. My approach is that the fire and fury (which isn't necessarily what you asked for) against Trump's style and actions doesn't help one analyze the outcome. I am also trying to stick to the impact on Energy as opposed to what is the optimal trade and geopolitical policy to solve our broader issues. But I appreciate your reading and engaging and will consider some sort of more direct commentary on the specific policies. Thank you, Arjun