Im trying to limit my exposure to US based production. Exported US coal was effectively vetoed by the West Coast States. So no way out. I worry same could happen with US oil. Export ban. Not my base case, but high enough probability to be prudent.
I will have to put CERAweek on my list of must-do's. Thanks for the run down and the focus on Yergin. I've read both his books and learned a lot as a result. It's amazing how rapidly the climate "worm" crawled into everyone's brain and controls thought their processes...especially, seemingly, of those who are influential and powerful-thinking of the ADNOC guy here. I wish (sometimes) I could enter a time capsule and sleep for a hundred years, and wake up to examine how all this fraught-Climate Emergency nonsense plays out. It will all be over by then, so it would fascinating to learn-do we figure out what a hoax has been perpetrated on us and extend our time horizons for this so-called Transition? Or do we stick to the dogma now accepted as fact by so much of the developed world that we must discontinue hydrocarbons as fast as possible to "save" the planet, and of course, thereby doom our civilization. Thinking about it, I am not sure I want to wake up in the second instance. Thanks for another thought provoking read on a sleepy (had a nap) Saturday afternoon. Cheers.
Mar 11, 2023·edited Mar 11, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti
Thanks Arjun for continuing to post weekly while you "unretire". Your question 2 seems to have a similar problem to the energy transition in terms of time frame-i.e., it will take a long time. Developing countries that are big enough to generate sufficient internal capital for their energy sectors like Brazil currently would seem to have less of a problem, but how do smaller countries that must rely on external financing escape from Western finance? When it comes to the dollar, it's kind of like TINA for global finance. OTOH, the Russian sanctions that froze their dollar accounts together with the "Dollar Wrecking Ball" last year that led to domestic political/economic upheaval in Sri Lanka probably has many developing economies thinking about alternatives. We're seeing some "baby steps" with the Saudis politely agreeing to accept some Chinese currency for their oil (who apparently knew they were brokering a peace deal w/Iran). However, it would probably take a long time to replace the current "Eurodollar" system and develop enough trust in such new system before it can provide any real alternative. This might speed up out of necessity if and when de-globalization really starts to happen, perhaps on a regional basis. But that's related to geopolitics which is very hard to apply probability analysis to.
How do you see US/EU politicians: are they becoming more realistic about energy security? If so, will the hostility towards fossiles end? Will less money be wasted on subsidies for renewables?
Mar 11, 2023·edited Mar 11, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti
"Many of the CERAWeek speakers resorted to some mixture of corporate speak, activist/ideologue speak..." I've worked in the financial industry and been an investor for some time now, in this business you have to decide for yourself what kind of person you will be, what your true values are. When I encounter someone who has very carefully thought through a position, takes a clear and consistent point of view and hazards putting that view on the record knowing well that the view could later turn out to be wrong yet does so anyway for the love of the game, and, if a view or specific point turns out to be wrong quickly owns that and uses it to improve their analysis next time, it's the most rare and valuable thing. That's why I read Superspiked. I try to do that myself, I can't do it any other way.
You can soon tell about someone whether they really understand the material, are willing to take a clear position on it and are willing to update their views in a good faith way as events unfold, or whether they've decided their highest values are to get by without working quite so hard at understanding reality and want to avoid ever saying anything that later turns out to be wrong. Our world is filled with people like that, and politics often rewards people who choose to be like that, but we have to decide deep down what values are most important to us. The best analysts always choose integrity and a lifelong dedication to perfecting their craft.
Im trying to limit my exposure to US based production. Exported US coal was effectively vetoed by the West Coast States. So no way out. I worry same could happen with US oil. Export ban. Not my base case, but high enough probability to be prudent.
Great. Dan Yergin is priceless. His wife was my poli sci professor at Georgetown when he won the Pulitzer. Fantastic book.
I will have to put CERAweek on my list of must-do's. Thanks for the run down and the focus on Yergin. I've read both his books and learned a lot as a result. It's amazing how rapidly the climate "worm" crawled into everyone's brain and controls thought their processes...especially, seemingly, of those who are influential and powerful-thinking of the ADNOC guy here. I wish (sometimes) I could enter a time capsule and sleep for a hundred years, and wake up to examine how all this fraught-Climate Emergency nonsense plays out. It will all be over by then, so it would fascinating to learn-do we figure out what a hoax has been perpetrated on us and extend our time horizons for this so-called Transition? Or do we stick to the dogma now accepted as fact by so much of the developed world that we must discontinue hydrocarbons as fast as possible to "save" the planet, and of course, thereby doom our civilization. Thinking about it, I am not sure I want to wake up in the second instance. Thanks for another thought provoking read on a sleepy (had a nap) Saturday afternoon. Cheers.
Thanks Arjun for continuing to post weekly while you "unretire". Your question 2 seems to have a similar problem to the energy transition in terms of time frame-i.e., it will take a long time. Developing countries that are big enough to generate sufficient internal capital for their energy sectors like Brazil currently would seem to have less of a problem, but how do smaller countries that must rely on external financing escape from Western finance? When it comes to the dollar, it's kind of like TINA for global finance. OTOH, the Russian sanctions that froze their dollar accounts together with the "Dollar Wrecking Ball" last year that led to domestic political/economic upheaval in Sri Lanka probably has many developing economies thinking about alternatives. We're seeing some "baby steps" with the Saudis politely agreeing to accept some Chinese currency for their oil (who apparently knew they were brokering a peace deal w/Iran). However, it would probably take a long time to replace the current "Eurodollar" system and develop enough trust in such new system before it can provide any real alternative. This might speed up out of necessity if and when de-globalization really starts to happen, perhaps on a regional basis. But that's related to geopolitics which is very hard to apply probability analysis to.
How do you see US/EU politicians: are they becoming more realistic about energy security? If so, will the hostility towards fossiles end? Will less money be wasted on subsidies for renewables?
"Many of the CERAWeek speakers resorted to some mixture of corporate speak, activist/ideologue speak..." I've worked in the financial industry and been an investor for some time now, in this business you have to decide for yourself what kind of person you will be, what your true values are. When I encounter someone who has very carefully thought through a position, takes a clear and consistent point of view and hazards putting that view on the record knowing well that the view could later turn out to be wrong yet does so anyway for the love of the game, and, if a view or specific point turns out to be wrong quickly owns that and uses it to improve their analysis next time, it's the most rare and valuable thing. That's why I read Superspiked. I try to do that myself, I can't do it any other way.
You can soon tell about someone whether they really understand the material, are willing to take a clear position on it and are willing to update their views in a good faith way as events unfold, or whether they've decided their highest values are to get by without working quite so hard at understanding reality and want to avoid ever saying anything that later turns out to be wrong. Our world is filled with people like that, and politics often rewards people who choose to be like that, but we have to decide deep down what values are most important to us. The best analysts always choose integrity and a lifelong dedication to perfecting their craft.