As you mentioned we are going to need material CAPEX pickup in the coming years, if we are going to keep up with global demand.
What are your thoughts on the current soft patch re: lower rigs count, lower utilization, etc. I continue to see commentary from the OFS companies that range from "business as usual" to "softer periods and lower day-rates" (rig operators) for the coming quarters.
It seems that if we mesh these points together, we are going to have to see some of the larger integrated players/E&P companies increase their rig usage to just fend off depletion/less productive wells over the coming year or so.
First time visitor here. This was an excellent video. I appreciate the charts and accompanying commentary. Of course, you might say that’s simply because I tend to agree with your thoughts. I just have one extremely minor point of contention. If you label something a “bubble stock”, then you really can’t say you don’t have an opinion. That bubble descriptor implies an overvaluation viewpoint. And I don’t disagree.
LOL. totally fair. only defense I'd make for myself is that I don't really have a view on when or where they might peak or what a reasonable long-term stock price is.
Arjun, I appreciate your insights and sharing your knowledge. I'm a veteran Macro trader (25 years) and ran a global macro fund for a decade (Omni Macro). It's individuals like you who have enriched and enhanced my knowledge.
I have to ask what you (you all, y'all? pronouns...haha) think of Citibank's continued bearishness for global demand and seemingly the industry in general? I confess I haven't spent the time to study their position in detail, but I'm assuming the Veriten team must have considered their arguments and have a view on them. It would be fascinating to get your (y'all's!) take on them.
(Note: I'm from Toronto not the south, but who doesn't love the pronoun 'y'all'?).
I like and respect Ed Morse. We don't always see eye-to-eye on oil market outlook, but in this case, his concern about near-term demand is reasonable. It's a point I highlight in noting "super vol" over "super cycle" in large part due to near term demand concerns in China, Europe, and US. Though I think Ed is more bearish long-term than I am on demand. I don't get Citi research so not 100% sure.
Great post as usual! Keep them coming! I (not “we” LOL) tend to think of oil demand in terms of dollars consumed rather than barrels, to build in some demand price elasticity. But I’m too busy/lazy to generate the historic charts and adjust for inflation. Maybe something you and your team can generate and share?
Arjun,
As you mentioned we are going to need material CAPEX pickup in the coming years, if we are going to keep up with global demand.
What are your thoughts on the current soft patch re: lower rigs count, lower utilization, etc. I continue to see commentary from the OFS companies that range from "business as usual" to "softer periods and lower day-rates" (rig operators) for the coming quarters.
It seems that if we mesh these points together, we are going to have to see some of the larger integrated players/E&P companies increase their rig usage to just fend off depletion/less productive wells over the coming year or so.
First time visitor here. This was an excellent video. I appreciate the charts and accompanying commentary. Of course, you might say that’s simply because I tend to agree with your thoughts. I just have one extremely minor point of contention. If you label something a “bubble stock”, then you really can’t say you don’t have an opinion. That bubble descriptor implies an overvaluation viewpoint. And I don’t disagree.
LOL. totally fair. only defense I'd make for myself is that I don't really have a view on when or where they might peak or what a reasonable long-term stock price is.
Excellent point. I was admittedly nitpicking, but investing is my baby, so I tend to be a bit overly protective of word usage in that realm!
Arjun, I appreciate your insights and sharing your knowledge. I'm a veteran Macro trader (25 years) and ran a global macro fund for a decade (Omni Macro). It's individuals like you who have enriched and enhanced my knowledge.
Best
Stephen Rosen
Stephen, thank you so much...really appreciate your comment. Regards, Arjun
Hi Arjun,
I have to ask what you (you all, y'all? pronouns...haha) think of Citibank's continued bearishness for global demand and seemingly the industry in general? I confess I haven't spent the time to study their position in detail, but I'm assuming the Veriten team must have considered their arguments and have a view on them. It would be fascinating to get your (y'all's!) take on them.
(Note: I'm from Toronto not the south, but who doesn't love the pronoun 'y'all'?).
I like and respect Ed Morse. We don't always see eye-to-eye on oil market outlook, but in this case, his concern about near-term demand is reasonable. It's a point I highlight in noting "super vol" over "super cycle" in large part due to near term demand concerns in China, Europe, and US. Though I think Ed is more bearish long-term than I am on demand. I don't get Citi research so not 100% sure.
Great post as usual! Keep them coming! I (not “we” LOL) tend to think of oil demand in terms of dollars consumed rather than barrels, to build in some demand price elasticity. But I’m too busy/lazy to generate the historic charts and adjust for inflation. Maybe something you and your team can generate and share?