Arjun, Happy Birthday. My health epiphany came at 24 years old during my first trip to Steamboat., thankfully. In October, at 68, I will have my 3 grandchildren under the age of 3! Popi must visit the gym 3 times a week least to stay up with the first one, let alone two more. You are so correct, without your health, nothing else matters.
Thank you for this post. I recently put a little money in a private O&G LLC to test the waters on the private side. Time will tell how that works out. The financing issue is large. Thankfully I never had to face room of 30 year old's with clueless questions....as I would probably be in jail!
Over a 30 year career in the European/emerging market E&P space, I have worked for listed, oligarch owned, PE owned, listed but with a majority PE owner, family business owned and largely every nuance imbetween.
To borrow from Winston Churchill; listed is the worst form of ownership, except for all the others.
Largely because all the others have business cycles which are independent of yours, but impact on the businesses ability to execute its business plan.
Notwithstanding, I absolutely take your point that there is almost no capex business plan being funded today.
On this side of the Atlantic various activist hedge funds, supported by what is left of the long only mob have just voted against the merger of NewMed and Capricorn (Cairn in the old money). They wanted their cash now but forgot that E&P's are naturally declining businesses and need to invest. So they got their cash - and a zombie business.
Happy birthday; and thank you for Super-Spiked. I read it religiously and then have to go and find something that I disagree with for fear of living in an echo chamber.
HBD Arjun! Hope you enjoy some time with friends and family. One question: What's the best way to participate in ownership if your favorite E&P goes private? Get to accredited investor status or even qualified purchaser asap? Cheers
Apr 1, 2023·edited Apr 1, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti
Happy Birthday Arjun!!! Did you read "Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence
2023 Eye on the Market energy paper" date March 28th, by Michael Cembalest Chair of Market & Investment strategy at JPM Asset & Wealth Management? Not the usual claptrap, but a more realistic and nuanced view with lots of data.
Really like your work! I am an entrepreneur on my second company and as hobby I research crude oil market and for a few years I hold a significant stake in IPCO - yes it is public, but because of the 30-something percentage ownership by the Lundin family the company behaves quite differently from other public companies, having just announced a large project for third of their market cap. And after the market reacted negatively to the news, the company excitedly ramped up share repurchases. Between the lines it felt like they sandbagged the expected CAPEX numbers to maybe do cheaper share repurchases. Like the company a lot. Maybe such cases with large long term shareholders could be an exception to your connundrum?
On the physical exercise point…totally agree. My first company I did in my early thirties…was a big success, but didn’t exercise much, was totally consumed by it, felt kind of brute forced with consequences for body, family etc. The second company now, in my mid 40s, still work super hard, but exercise much more, I am calmer about the outcome of the company, different balance of brute force / knowing what to do and being able to hire people in advance of every scaling step.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on your blog! Enjoying it!
Apr 1, 2023·edited Apr 1, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti
"No more being lectured to by 30-something hedge funders focused on monthly performance increments!!!" Haha, it's worth going private just for that.
Personal note - I find that physical fitness really helps with mental fitness, being able to sustain high level output for a long time and deal with stress, which is key in a super vol cycle! I do pushups, squats and chinups to break up the studying time. It helps to keep the razor sharp. Also walking meetings instead of everyone sitting down (only works if there are a few people, but big meetings don't tend to be productive anyway).
Happy birthday, Arjun. Your posts top our “first to read” list. Thanks for all the wisdom you pass along.
Arjun, Happy Birthday. My health epiphany came at 24 years old during my first trip to Steamboat., thankfully. In October, at 68, I will have my 3 grandchildren under the age of 3! Popi must visit the gym 3 times a week least to stay up with the first one, let alone two more. You are so correct, without your health, nothing else matters.
Thank you for this post. I recently put a little money in a private O&G LLC to test the waters on the private side. Time will tell how that works out. The financing issue is large. Thankfully I never had to face room of 30 year old's with clueless questions....as I would probably be in jail!
Great work and yes two is the limit!
> where the opportunity for more favorable fiscal terms and government relations is possible
You thinking Guyana, Brazil, Colombia and maybe Peru? Anywhere else stick out as investable?
Over a 30 year career in the European/emerging market E&P space, I have worked for listed, oligarch owned, PE owned, listed but with a majority PE owner, family business owned and largely every nuance imbetween.
To borrow from Winston Churchill; listed is the worst form of ownership, except for all the others.
Largely because all the others have business cycles which are independent of yours, but impact on the businesses ability to execute its business plan.
Notwithstanding, I absolutely take your point that there is almost no capex business plan being funded today.
On this side of the Atlantic various activist hedge funds, supported by what is left of the long only mob have just voted against the merger of NewMed and Capricorn (Cairn in the old money). They wanted their cash now but forgot that E&P's are naturally declining businesses and need to invest. So they got their cash - and a zombie business.
Happy birthday; and thank you for Super-Spiked. I read it religiously and then have to go and find something that I disagree with for fear of living in an echo chamber.
HBD Arjun! Hope you enjoy some time with friends and family. One question: What's the best way to participate in ownership if your favorite E&P goes private? Get to accredited investor status or even qualified purchaser asap? Cheers
Happy Birthday Arjun!!! Did you read "Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence
2023 Eye on the Market energy paper" date March 28th, by Michael Cembalest Chair of Market & Investment strategy at JPM Asset & Wealth Management? Not the usual claptrap, but a more realistic and nuanced view with lots of data.
Arjun!
Really like your work! I am an entrepreneur on my second company and as hobby I research crude oil market and for a few years I hold a significant stake in IPCO - yes it is public, but because of the 30-something percentage ownership by the Lundin family the company behaves quite differently from other public companies, having just announced a large project for third of their market cap. And after the market reacted negatively to the news, the company excitedly ramped up share repurchases. Between the lines it felt like they sandbagged the expected CAPEX numbers to maybe do cheaper share repurchases. Like the company a lot. Maybe such cases with large long term shareholders could be an exception to your connundrum?
On the physical exercise point…totally agree. My first company I did in my early thirties…was a big success, but didn’t exercise much, was totally consumed by it, felt kind of brute forced with consequences for body, family etc. The second company now, in my mid 40s, still work super hard, but exercise much more, I am calmer about the outcome of the company, different balance of brute force / knowing what to do and being able to hire people in advance of every scaling step.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on your blog! Enjoying it!
Happy, happy birthday. Please know that you are a great blessing in my life.
"No more being lectured to by 30-something hedge funders focused on monthly performance increments!!!" Haha, it's worth going private just for that.
Personal note - I find that physical fitness really helps with mental fitness, being able to sustain high level output for a long time and deal with stress, which is key in a super vol cycle! I do pushups, squats and chinups to break up the studying time. It helps to keep the razor sharp. Also walking meetings instead of everyone sitting down (only works if there are a few people, but big meetings don't tend to be productive anyway).