Heard you on Robert Bryce's Power Hungry podcast. Hit all the right notes:
- affordable, reliable, abundant, on-demand, secure energy > 7 billion reach our living standards
- US energy consumption and air quality improvements
- O&G future demand, esp. the 7 billion ^
- material resource demands make 100% ICE adoption by mid 2030s a pipe dream (see Simon Michaux's outstanding work)
- identifying fuel types with red/blue charade is a fool's game. physics/economics/reality (^7 billion) define the energy transition, not jersey colors or rhetoric
Final note: Robert asked you a question he asks all his guests, "what are you reading".
Re: the fiction you noted, you're doing it in reverse order (as we did, > a decade ago). As such, the present read can be disappointing by comparison. (On the other hand, you can see the philosophical green shoots and character development of the highly relevant one you just completed.)
We're writing to suggest one more. Likely the most important of all that author's works at this particular point in time in the advanced world. It is non-fiction, 1971.
B/c you're clearly - like us - at the intersection of energy/environmental/economics/philosophy, the "must read" for you is "The New Left: The Anti-Industrial Revolution". (Re-released 1999 as "Return of the Primitive: The Anti-Industrial Revolution", w/supplementary articles post publication).
Possibly the best synaptic connection from the centuries-old philosophical struggle for humanity articulated in AS to the present energy/environmental/economic debacle. We could hardly recommend a more relevant and timely read.
The prescience and current relevance are disturbing. Put another way, if it occurs to you that AS was a warning to western civilization, this one appears to have been a "how to" manual that was actually implemented. (Ironically, given its author, in the wake of the fall of Soviet communism.....).
For those who ask - regarding energy/environmental/economic policy? How did we get here? The one you read + this book largely answer that question.
Keep up the good work, Arjun. 5-7 billion people depend on it.
Thank you Gary! It's going to be volatile, but we appear to have gone through the max period of non-OPEC growth coupled with the growth in these "disruption countries" production, so the odds are better for a crude oil rebound at least by 2024.
The current American immigration policy is a disgrace. It has been so politicized by the spectre of discrimination as to bring us to the point where we we cannot distinguish between a Nobel laureate and a criminal crossing our borders.
Happy 4th and thanks again for the excellent column you offer weekly!
It appears a correlation could be made that as oil price increases (see 2009-2014), volume disruption from these four nations increases. The resource becomes valuable enough for bad actors to step in to take their share.
The production disruptions over 2010-14 did mask the challenge of emerging shale supply growth...I remember it well. A few clients called it out at the time...most ignored it, as did I.
I’m happy to hear how you use the phrase U.S. and CANADIAN oil production/supply consistently together. Though makes sense due to your knowledge and common sense.
I remember 10-15 years ago before the shale oil "revolution" really developed U.S. oil security/supply was always being called in American media as "North American" oil security/supply in terms of the thinking that when one "included" all the Canadian oil sands reserves along with our conventional oil (and Mexican to a far lesser degree) the sum being the security/supply.
Then as the shale oil supply increased so quickly and dramatically the term "North American Oil Supply" disappeared from the media commentary.
It went back to "U.S. Oil Supply and U.S. Oil Self Sufficiency" only.
Pipelines became politically toxic (especially pipelines from Canada, but also to a degree domestically).
As this U.S. shale oil growth/supply starts to roll over and decline (and it's starting) and when the idiot class start to be forced to acknowledge the absolute essential nature of oil to the U.S,'s (and all other countries economic well being), I will just smile when I see the media re-start the phrase......
Than you Muraayv! Yes, for me, it's always been US + CAN. It should be a killer partnership that somehow, by both sides, has been consumed by "climate crisis" ideology. We can take steps to reduce domestic consumption relative to GDP growth, while, in my view, looking to maximize combined crude/product exports.
Heard you on Robert Bryce's Power Hungry podcast. Hit all the right notes:
- affordable, reliable, abundant, on-demand, secure energy > 7 billion reach our living standards
- US energy consumption and air quality improvements
- O&G future demand, esp. the 7 billion ^
- material resource demands make 100% ICE adoption by mid 2030s a pipe dream (see Simon Michaux's outstanding work)
- identifying fuel types with red/blue charade is a fool's game. physics/economics/reality (^7 billion) define the energy transition, not jersey colors or rhetoric
Subscribed.
Thank you very much.
Final note: Robert asked you a question he asks all his guests, "what are you reading".
Re: the fiction you noted, you're doing it in reverse order (as we did, > a decade ago). As such, the present read can be disappointing by comparison. (On the other hand, you can see the philosophical green shoots and character development of the highly relevant one you just completed.)
We're writing to suggest one more. Likely the most important of all that author's works at this particular point in time in the advanced world. It is non-fiction, 1971.
B/c you're clearly - like us - at the intersection of energy/environmental/economics/philosophy, the "must read" for you is "The New Left: The Anti-Industrial Revolution". (Re-released 1999 as "Return of the Primitive: The Anti-Industrial Revolution", w/supplementary articles post publication).
Possibly the best synaptic connection from the centuries-old philosophical struggle for humanity articulated in AS to the present energy/environmental/economic debacle. We could hardly recommend a more relevant and timely read.
The prescience and current relevance are disturbing. Put another way, if it occurs to you that AS was a warning to western civilization, this one appears to have been a "how to" manual that was actually implemented. (Ironically, given its author, in the wake of the fall of Soviet communism.....).
For those who ask - regarding energy/environmental/economic policy? How did we get here? The one you read + this book largely answer that question.
Keep up the good work, Arjun. 5-7 billion people depend on it.
- environMENTAL
thank you and appreciate book recommendation
Thanks Arjun...great writeup !!
From a beat up oil bull..hope 2H / 23 is better
🐂🤠
Thank you Gary! It's going to be volatile, but we appear to have gone through the max period of non-OPEC growth coupled with the growth in these "disruption countries" production, so the odds are better for a crude oil rebound at least by 2024.
The current American immigration policy is a disgrace. It has been so politicized by the spectre of discrimination as to bring us to the point where we we cannot distinguish between a Nobel laureate and a criminal crossing our borders.
Happy 4th and thanks again for the excellent column you offer weekly!
Thank you Stuart!
Appreciated your family immigration story. We need more immigrants in the US, they are often the most loyal citizens!!
Thank you Marcus!
It appears a correlation could be made that as oil price increases (see 2009-2014), volume disruption from these four nations increases. The resource becomes valuable enough for bad actors to step in to take their share.
The production disruptions over 2010-14 did mask the challenge of emerging shale supply growth...I remember it well. A few clients called it out at the time...most ignored it, as did I.
Thank you Arjun. I hope you and all of your family enjoy a great Independent Day celebration!
Thank you Martin!
Arjun.
I’m happy to hear how you use the phrase U.S. and CANADIAN oil production/supply consistently together. Though makes sense due to your knowledge and common sense.
I remember 10-15 years ago before the shale oil "revolution" really developed U.S. oil security/supply was always being called in American media as "North American" oil security/supply in terms of the thinking that when one "included" all the Canadian oil sands reserves along with our conventional oil (and Mexican to a far lesser degree) the sum being the security/supply.
Then as the shale oil supply increased so quickly and dramatically the term "North American Oil Supply" disappeared from the media commentary.
It went back to "U.S. Oil Supply and U.S. Oil Self Sufficiency" only.
Pipelines became politically toxic (especially pipelines from Canada, but also to a degree domestically).
As this U.S. shale oil growth/supply starts to roll over and decline (and it's starting) and when the idiot class start to be forced to acknowledge the absolute essential nature of oil to the U.S,'s (and all other countries economic well being), I will just smile when I see the media re-start the phrase......
"North American Oil Security/Supply.
Watch for it.
In my humble opinion. 🙂
Great posts. Look forward to each week.
Than you Muraayv! Yes, for me, it's always been US + CAN. It should be a killer partnership that somehow, by both sides, has been consumed by "climate crisis" ideology. We can take steps to reduce domestic consumption relative to GDP growth, while, in my view, looking to maximize combined crude/product exports.
Agree. Again, really enjoy and learn from your posts and commentaries. Always look forward to them. Hope you have a great July 4th holiday. :)