23 Comments
Jan 7, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti

Arjun, I have 3 questions: While you give examples, have you defined "diversified" in a previous post? When I see Exxon and Chevron I think of integrated oil companies, but I'm not exactly sure that is what you mean, because you also mention duration which I've been interpreting as having additional long term supply capacity (which investors are not rewarding companies for presently); On the Canadian pure plays, my theory had been that they provide vital heavy oil which our refining system developed in the 70s needs to mix with domestic light sweet crude. We used to get a lot from Venezuela and of course we import heavier sour crude from the Saudis for our Gulf Coast refiners. So what is the "shelf life" for the Canadian pure plays in your opinion; Finally, what about natural gas. As we develop more LNG export capacity to replace Russian gas, shouldn't the spread drop more as export demand increases?

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Jan 2, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti

I just subscribed - finally found someone with a common sense macro analysis of the energy sector. I am a petroleum engineer working in the Permian Basin for a small privately owned O&G company. I have more than a few grey hairs and have seen a lot in my career, but the extreme push to renewables is alarming and will end in misery for many. In the 90's I took a detour into nuclear waste disposal analysis, joining a team responsible for the environmental impact analysis of several of the large waste repositories in the US. Safe storage of nuclear waste is possible in well-engineered sites, and nuclear makes much more sense when considering the environmental damage caused by over-building wind and solar. Keep up the great analysis, Arjun!

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Jan 2, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti

Beautiful and well written ,the world needs more of you

Thank you

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Great post Arjun. It's late so I'm only going to comment about your point on Canadian "dirty oil". It's born of ignorance in my view about the maturation process of petroleum from simple keragen to less complex molecules through pressure and temperature. It drives me nuts to hear people say this but you can't fight the tide. CHeers!

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Jan 1, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti

Arjun,

Thank you for all your insights over the past year.

Re: DRC and James Robertson's NYS comments, I think we had better realize that for those who truly believe that they have a very brief time to save the planet, no amount of human suffering or economic waste is too much. How can it be? It seems it will come down to pain vs true believers. Do I dare note the True Believers run every institution in the country as of now?

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Jan 1, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti

Thank you Arjun and Happy New Year !! 🌈 🌈

Ive been following you for most of 2022, looking forward to your input in 2023 😊

Your comments on Capex and ROCE are guiding me well. !! 👍👍

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Jan 1, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti

Happy New Year Arjun and thanks so much for your excellent work! Was nice to see the links to Joe Rogan's interview on cobalt mining in the DRC and George Noble's interview with Motorhead. They both appeared in my YouTube feed and I watched/listened to them both earlier (kind of scary how Google's algorithms can predict what I'm interested in). Also as a resident of NYS we not only followed CA with the EV mandate, which if I read the articles about it correctly imposes some intermediate compliance deadlines (first one in 2026), but also the State's climate action council recommended new laws on 12/19 that I'll be waiting to see if the State adopts. One recommendation is that existing homes won't be able to replace fossil fuel heating furnaces after 2030, but must use heat pumps. A lot of older houses like mine use hot water baseboard that you just can't plug a heat pump into and I get A/C with window units or through the wall A/C units. I replaced my oil burner for about $8000 in 2014 and I don't have air conditioning ductwork. Even with tax credits, it would be a lot more expensive for me to install a split system heat pump. So if this recommendation becomes law, I guess I better sell before 2030 and make it the next owner's problem. .

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Jan 1, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti

Many thanks for your thoughtful & balanced musings over the last year. I look forward to seeing your updates in my ‘stack. I am a 25+ year PM/Wealth Advisor, who thankfully caught the energy lift in late’21/22 while piecing together a high short/intermediate-term inflationary thesis. I can tell you are a passionate educator and we certainly need more like you on social media. Wishing you a healthy and prosperous ‘23

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Jan 1, 2023Liked by Arjun Murti

Thank you for your terrific work Arjun

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