Arjun you have honed in on the key question for producers. Peak crude oil seems doubtful if we stay on track for (i) steady state or slight decline in energy consumption in OECD, (ii) growth in energy demand in the Global South, (iii) long term-perhaps decades, supply chain bottlenecks given material intensity of solar, wind, battery, nuclear (iv) divergent views on climate change mitigation and adaptation. Also to your point, all people desire to climb the economic ladder, and that takes energy. I am sure you have seen this slide before but it tells a great story. There is no such thing as a low energy rich country./Users/deborahbyers/Desktop/Screenshot 2023-08-13 at 7.29.45 AM.png
Thanks Arjun, another great article. This is off topic, but one thing I've also noticed is how China and India and other developing countries are going "full steam ahead" with nuclear power generation for electricity, while the U.S. and Europe aren't. In the west, the old time environmentalists are still very anti-nuclear power, but it seems to be a pretty green technology to me in terms of carbon output and the amount of waste produced (e.g. some day we may figure out how to efficiently recycle solar panels to recover the rare earth elements and other valuable and in some cases toxic materials and also recycle multi-layered composite wind turbine blades when they wear out approximately in 20 years). If these new small modular reactors work out, it might be a way for developing countries to scale nuclear up with less financial risk. Any thoughts on this?
A great breakdown of future oil demand by region and country. Have you posted previously, or are planning to post, a breakdown on future oil supply by region and country? I.e. Canada/US supplies more or less percentage of this future demand? OPEC+ percentage supply projected to stay the same, decline, etc.?
It would help for the investors among us to get an idea of what regions are going to have a big call on supply in the future.
Note: thanks to Jeff Currie for giving me an education in commodities, he did so many podcasts and interviews I spent many hours listening to. I've gotten way more out of SuperSpiked and Jeff's material than I did in various courses and books over the years.
Hi Investor, I have refrained from publishing on S/D in Super-Spiked in the traditional manner like you would see from Street commodity/equity analysts. But there is relevance to some of the themes and will see how or if it can be worked in.
excellent
thank you!
Arjun you have honed in on the key question for producers. Peak crude oil seems doubtful if we stay on track for (i) steady state or slight decline in energy consumption in OECD, (ii) growth in energy demand in the Global South, (iii) long term-perhaps decades, supply chain bottlenecks given material intensity of solar, wind, battery, nuclear (iv) divergent views on climate change mitigation and adaptation. Also to your point, all people desire to climb the economic ladder, and that takes energy. I am sure you have seen this slide before but it tells a great story. There is no such thing as a low energy rich country./Users/deborahbyers/Desktop/Screenshot 2023-08-13 at 7.29.45 AM.png
Thank you Deborah! Always great to get your thoughts.
Thanks Arjun, another great article. This is off topic, but one thing I've also noticed is how China and India and other developing countries are going "full steam ahead" with nuclear power generation for electricity, while the U.S. and Europe aren't. In the west, the old time environmentalists are still very anti-nuclear power, but it seems to be a pretty green technology to me in terms of carbon output and the amount of waste produced (e.g. some day we may figure out how to efficiently recycle solar panels to recover the rare earth elements and other valuable and in some cases toxic materials and also recycle multi-layered composite wind turbine blades when they wear out approximately in 20 years). If these new small modular reactors work out, it might be a way for developing countries to scale nuclear up with less financial risk. Any thoughts on this?
Definitely looking closely at small modular reactors as a theme. Agree it is worth watching.
A brilliant read ! Thank you Arjun!
thank you!
A great breakdown of future oil demand by region and country. Have you posted previously, or are planning to post, a breakdown on future oil supply by region and country? I.e. Canada/US supplies more or less percentage of this future demand? OPEC+ percentage supply projected to stay the same, decline, etc.?
It would help for the investors among us to get an idea of what regions are going to have a big call on supply in the future.
Note: thanks to Jeff Currie for giving me an education in commodities, he did so many podcasts and interviews I spent many hours listening to. I've gotten way more out of SuperSpiked and Jeff's material than I did in various courses and books over the years.
Hi Investor, I have refrained from publishing on S/D in Super-Spiked in the traditional manner like you would see from Street commodity/equity analysts. But there is relevance to some of the themes and will see how or if it can be worked in.
Yes, understood. Thank you!