Hello Arjun, I look forward to a new Super Spiked and always read it first before anything else that day. It's top priority.
I know that you are not making trading calls, I fully acknowledge that, so can I ask about what you think the rough floor and ceiling on crude prices will be during this superspike period? I.e. demand destruction we seem to have reached at ($120 crude + crack spread of $40 = ~$160) at the pump during the March 2022 and June 2022 peaks, is that ~$160 range about the ceiling on prices for this period? And the shut-in floor, what price range? Again, I'm not looking for a specific prediction but just the general range you see prices gyrating within. Any clarification is appreciated.
I enjoyed this article so much that I went back in time and bought tons of XOM on margin at $34 right before the 2020 election. Actually didn't have to go back in time, actually did it. It's so refreshing to hear some common sense from someone who was at the top and not just little people like myself. How anyone could think oil is going to disappear any time soon boggles the mind. So grateful to the guy on seeking alpha who sent me a link to this post and I'm now a subscriber.
Governments now appear to want to do anything they can to ensure citizens do not feel the full effects of higher energy prices. Often subsidising them in some way, and funding it via a windfall tax on energy producers. Talk about failing to understand economics, their actions can only make things more acute.
Thank you very much for your excellent columns and videos. Since I discovered one of your column (The 3Rs - ROCE rebounding, Recovering S&P weight, Rescued assets) from Twitters in late April, I have read every column, watched each video and listened each previous interview on your substack.
I wonder if you could write a follow up column on "market corrections, recession risk, and energy" that covers bear markets and corrections from late 1960s to early 1990s. Some people (including Stephen Roach) believe that there is a significant probability of stagflation for next several years. Your experience and knowledge (whether direct or indirect) of the energy market from late 1960s to early 1980s will be extremely helpful.
Thank you for such an excellent analysis! What do you think of oil sector's commitment to maintaining capital discipline despite elevated prices, and do you see that would contribute to sustained level of energy prices?
Thank you for putting out such great content for free! I only started learning about energy markets recently this year and have benefitted a lot from the knowledge you have shared. It is not easy to find such pages on the internet now, it is dominated by people talking about cryptocurrencies, tech and disruption. We need more people sharing expertise on energy!
Many European majors are still trading below their pre-covid peaks when oil was trading at $60 a barrel. I think there is still upside in store for them.
Hello Arjun, I look forward to a new Super Spiked and always read it first before anything else that day. It's top priority.
I know that you are not making trading calls, I fully acknowledge that, so can I ask about what you think the rough floor and ceiling on crude prices will be during this superspike period? I.e. demand destruction we seem to have reached at ($120 crude + crack spread of $40 = ~$160) at the pump during the March 2022 and June 2022 peaks, is that ~$160 range about the ceiling on prices for this period? And the shut-in floor, what price range? Again, I'm not looking for a specific prediction but just the general range you see prices gyrating within. Any clarification is appreciated.
Best,
J
I enjoyed this article so much that I went back in time and bought tons of XOM on margin at $34 right before the 2020 election. Actually didn't have to go back in time, actually did it. It's so refreshing to hear some common sense from someone who was at the top and not just little people like myself. How anyone could think oil is going to disappear any time soon boggles the mind. So grateful to the guy on seeking alpha who sent me a link to this post and I'm now a subscriber.
Governments now appear to want to do anything they can to ensure citizens do not feel the full effects of higher energy prices. Often subsidising them in some way, and funding it via a windfall tax on energy producers. Talk about failing to understand economics, their actions can only make things more acute.
Thank you very much for your excellent columns and videos. Since I discovered one of your column (The 3Rs - ROCE rebounding, Recovering S&P weight, Rescued assets) from Twitters in late April, I have read every column, watched each video and listened each previous interview on your substack.
I wonder if you could write a follow up column on "market corrections, recession risk, and energy" that covers bear markets and corrections from late 1960s to early 1990s. Some people (including Stephen Roach) believe that there is a significant probability of stagflation for next several years. Your experience and knowledge (whether direct or indirect) of the energy market from late 1960s to early 1980s will be extremely helpful.
Thanks again.
Thank you for such an excellent analysis! What do you think of oil sector's commitment to maintaining capital discipline despite elevated prices, and do you see that would contribute to sustained level of energy prices?
Fantastic analysis as usual sir!
Thank you for putting out such great content for free! I only started learning about energy markets recently this year and have benefitted a lot from the knowledge you have shared. It is not easy to find such pages on the internet now, it is dominated by people talking about cryptocurrencies, tech and disruption. We need more people sharing expertise on energy!
Many European majors are still trading below their pre-covid peaks when oil was trading at $60 a barrel. I think there is still upside in store for them.