Fantastic column this week. I really like this Q&A format.
RE shale growth: I’d say the consolidation we have already seen, and that yet to come, should keep a lid on growth. The privates blew their wad in 2022 drilling best inventory and then sold. Big boys have learned that self-control isn’t just a biblical virtue, but also a business one.
Q10: In your list of model presidents, you left out the one who we need right now: Dwight Eisenhower. The model Whig president of the 20th century - all about internal improvements (interstate highway system; modern commercial air transport system, massive buildup of public universities, start of the space program). The model Whig president of the 19th century was Abraham Lincoln, who thereby deserves two slots on your honor roll (transcontinental railroads, telegraph, modern army organization and logistics, land grant colleges, National Academy of Sciences). With Ike in office, we might get the electric grid and pipelines we need for the energy transition, and who would have the vision, prestige, and ability to work with all sides to get rid of stupidities like the Jones Act and corn ethanol. Bob Kleinberg
Great post as always. On the subject of U.S. supply growth in shale. I am a little more bearish than you-although I certainly acknowledge your point about how bad the "rollvever" call has been 😆. Howver the growth trajectory for the two key liquids basins-Permian, and Bakken is and has been essentially flat for the last 6-8 months. I hold the view DUC withdrawal has been an unsung driver of output. If prices, that should curtail DUCs and there will be a short term reduction 6-12 months in liquids output. This will push prices back into the $80-90 range and stimulate new drilling. The question is can the 50 or 60 rigs I see returning to work in the second half sustain or boost liquids output? Cheers and Happy New Year.
Thanks. Excellent post again.
We so agree with you re the clown show of partisan politics!! Truly disheartening!
What a creative use of AI. Definitely including Eisenhower. And can we add in a ringer like Ghandi to make it more interesting 🤨
Fantastic column this week. I really like this Q&A format.
RE shale growth: I’d say the consolidation we have already seen, and that yet to come, should keep a lid on growth. The privates blew their wad in 2022 drilling best inventory and then sold. Big boys have learned that self-control isn’t just a biblical virtue, but also a business one.
Q10: In your list of model presidents, you left out the one who we need right now: Dwight Eisenhower. The model Whig president of the 20th century - all about internal improvements (interstate highway system; modern commercial air transport system, massive buildup of public universities, start of the space program). The model Whig president of the 19th century was Abraham Lincoln, who thereby deserves two slots on your honor roll (transcontinental railroads, telegraph, modern army organization and logistics, land grant colleges, National Academy of Sciences). With Ike in office, we might get the electric grid and pipelines we need for the energy transition, and who would have the vision, prestige, and ability to work with all sides to get rid of stupidities like the Jones Act and corn ethanol. Bob Kleinberg
Great! Thanks Arjun. Wish I was skiing with you.
I need to start reading your substack in more depth. Great ideas, I will definitely start doing research on my own for energy investing
Great post as always. On the subject of U.S. supply growth in shale. I am a little more bearish than you-although I certainly acknowledge your point about how bad the "rollvever" call has been 😆. Howver the growth trajectory for the two key liquids basins-Permian, and Bakken is and has been essentially flat for the last 6-8 months. I hold the view DUC withdrawal has been an unsung driver of output. If prices, that should curtail DUCs and there will be a short term reduction 6-12 months in liquids output. This will push prices back into the $80-90 range and stimulate new drilling. The question is can the 50 or 60 rigs I see returning to work in the second half sustain or boost liquids output? Cheers and Happy New Year.