Sorry to see CS go. The people who sit in those ESG committees need to, in some cases, grow a backbone and give up on the “nice people believe this about the environment” trope...misplaced religious instincts...keep firmly calling bullshit Arjun because this net zero stuff is a utopian nightmare
Arjun - thanks for your kind comments about the CS energy banking and research team. I had the great honor of working with this great group of people for two decades and I will always have fond memories of my colleagues. The energy cycle has given me an opportunity to redeem myself for schlepping energy companies through Boston as we, perhaps unknowingly at the time, for doing too good a job in raising capital and having a hand in destroying the economics of the sector, but that was then. Our family office has an entirely different view of balance sheet integrity and optimal capital structures today to say the least. Tuition in the oil patch is expensive, and so will the lessons to be learned by those that choose ideology over economic reality. I look forward each week to your work.
Thanks again for another excellent column. Even though I know that CapEx has been grossly insufficient for the past several years and that I should be, just like uncle Warren, looking over the short term valley, the current market still hits my nerves. Believe me, your columns have been great comfort to me during time like this.
Any significant bailout of banks will lead to some sorts of "nationalization" of banks. Once the government has them under control, it will be not unimaginable that to set different interest rates for the loans to companies in different sector.
Thank you for the reassuring look at energy. I remain an energy bull despite a pounding the last couple of weeks based on my own exhaustive reading and experts like you. There seems to be only a small percentage of engaged investors willing to take a long view of energy and see the dire situation our policy makers and major investment institutions have handed us. We will be richly vindicated. As for the energy situation here in "Rome" please be prepared to get it where you can....this is going to get very ugly as my own Midwest rural utility tells me they are preparing for brownouts this summer.
Thank you D.S. Grid reliability is not my historic expertise, but that is the next rising issue as renewables without storage or other backstops become a meaningful share of capacity.
"this post will look to address how the current banking crisis, or whatever it is"
I have to chuckle some, because when writing about it among friends, I kept saying "banking issue." I couldn't call it a crisis, because it's pretty isolated.
I think the answer to your question is that industry is generally slower moving. Clearly, my sense of risk could be over-stated...though not sure how anyone could still think so post ING, HSBC, Munich Re, and even now Chubb. I do think the analyst instinct is different than corporate executives. I don't mean that in a disparaging way. Many times, equity analysts like myself can over-react, etc. I do think industry is moving in the direction of fortress balance sheet. But they are not yet at the point of recognizing net debt zero or negative net debt is likely the right answer. It is why I write publicly now.
Sorry to see CS go. The people who sit in those ESG committees need to, in some cases, grow a backbone and give up on the “nice people believe this about the environment” trope...misplaced religious instincts...keep firmly calling bullshit Arjun because this net zero stuff is a utopian nightmare
That prayer was phenomenal! Haha. Thanks again for another great weekend read Arjun.
thank you! prayers are definitely needed :)
Excellent work Arjun. Keep it up!
thank you Six Bravo.
Arjun - thanks for your kind comments about the CS energy banking and research team. I had the great honor of working with this great group of people for two decades and I will always have fond memories of my colleagues. The energy cycle has given me an opportunity to redeem myself for schlepping energy companies through Boston as we, perhaps unknowingly at the time, for doing too good a job in raising capital and having a hand in destroying the economics of the sector, but that was then. Our family office has an entirely different view of balance sheet integrity and optimal capital structures today to say the least. Tuition in the oil patch is expensive, and so will the lessons to be learned by those that choose ideology over economic reality. I look forward each week to your work.
it's been a great energy franchise across generations...sad to see it go. Thanks for the note.
Hi Arjun,
Thanks again for another excellent column. Even though I know that CapEx has been grossly insufficient for the past several years and that I should be, just like uncle Warren, looking over the short term valley, the current market still hits my nerves. Believe me, your columns have been great comfort to me during time like this.
Any significant bailout of banks will lead to some sorts of "nationalization" of banks. Once the government has them under control, it will be not unimaginable that to set different interest rates for the loans to companies in different sector.
In case you missed, here is an important column: https://www.bostonherald.com/2023/03/24/caruso-new-climate-change-regs-a-burden-for-business/
Try this link if it behind the paywall for you: https://archive.ph/HjNj6
Thanks Tonyforever. and thanks for passing along the article from Guy Caruso.
Thank you for the reassuring look at energy. I remain an energy bull despite a pounding the last couple of weeks based on my own exhaustive reading and experts like you. There seems to be only a small percentage of engaged investors willing to take a long view of energy and see the dire situation our policy makers and major investment institutions have handed us. We will be richly vindicated. As for the energy situation here in "Rome" please be prepared to get it where you can....this is going to get very ugly as my own Midwest rural utility tells me they are preparing for brownouts this summer.
Thank you D.S. Grid reliability is not my historic expertise, but that is the next rising issue as renewables without storage or other backstops become a meaningful share of capacity.
Round #1 and The Masters hasn’t even started yet!
I'm still behind! :)
Would you mind summarizing your definition of “Super Vol macro backdrop”? Or a link to a prior posting on this?
Thanks for a few chuckles on this post.
I think this post captures it:
https://arjunmurti.substack.com/p/the-pursuit-of-vikings-embracing
"this post will look to address how the current banking crisis, or whatever it is"
I have to chuckle some, because when writing about it among friends, I kept saying "banking issue." I couldn't call it a crisis, because it's pretty isolated.
LOL. yes, not a crisis yet...or maybe it is?!?
Why isn’t no or negative net debt an obvious corporate goal given the headwinds you clearly describe?
I think the answer to your question is that industry is generally slower moving. Clearly, my sense of risk could be over-stated...though not sure how anyone could still think so post ING, HSBC, Munich Re, and even now Chubb. I do think the analyst instinct is different than corporate executives. I don't mean that in a disparaging way. Many times, equity analysts like myself can over-react, etc. I do think industry is moving in the direction of fortress balance sheet. But they are not yet at the point of recognizing net debt zero or negative net debt is likely the right answer. It is why I write publicly now.