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Super-Spiked
Super-Spiked is about the messy energy transition era and the clash of energy commodity & equity markets with climate policy, ESG initiatives, and geopolitics.
Energy Transition Needs To Transition
The EV S-Curve Rorschach Test
Lessons from 2023: RIP "Fast Energy Transition" Narrative
Ding DONG: New Energy Growing Pains Rewards Transition Patience
The 1.4 Billion People Club Will Dominate The Outlook For Energy
Lessons From Asia “Tigers”: Significant Oil Demand Growth Ahead For India and Africa
Obliterating Peak Oil Demand Fears As Energy Transition Realities Set In
Re-Centering “Energy Transition” To a Rest of World Focus
CERAWeek 2023 Takeaways: The Energy Transition Needs to Transition
Navigating The Energy Crisis Era
Spring Check-In On Growth And Returns
Ten Tactical Questions for Traditional Energy in 2024
The Mega Risks and Traditional Energy As A Hedge
Policy Risk In A Future Super-Spike 2 Environment
Five Big Calls To Get Right Over The Next Ten Years
Five Big Questions for Traditional Energy at the Mid-Point of 2023
Oil Super-Cycles Are About Upward Pressure on Long-Dated Oil, Not Near-Term Inventory Movements
Volatility Not Vienna Redux: Ignore OPEC Noise Most of the Time
Evolution of a Structural Bull Market: The PTSD Pullback
Five Big Questions At The Start of 2023
Attracting Capital Back to Energy: Q&A and Clarifications
Metaverse Meets Universe: The Coming Return of Terminal Value to Traditional Energy
Market corrections, Jimmy Carter, and energy in the 1970s
Crude Oil Commodity Markets 101
The Pursuit of Vikings: Embracing Oil Market Volatility
Super vol vs super cycle, a subtle but important mindset difference
Corporate Strategy
Should I Stay Or Should I Go? E&P M&A Takeaways
Big Themes for 2024: Normalization, Differentiation, and Phasing-In Profitable Growth
Reframing the growth versus returns trade-off debate
Beautiful Big Oil: Takeaways From Super Major M&A
Revisiting the Role of Oil & Gas in Energy Transition
The Freedom to Grow Base Distributions
Zigging While Others Zag In A Super Vol World
Will The Grass Be Greener as a Private? A Focus on Smid-Cap Traditional Energy
Cost Curve Evolution, Diversification, Cost of Capital, and Avoiding Purgatory
What Would Lee Raymond Do (WWLRD)?
Will the grass be greener going private as a large-cap oil & gas company?
E&P M&A Q&A and Clarifications
E&P M&A Inevitability
Stop trying to get Blockbuster Video — i.e. Big Oil—to accelerate energy transition
ROCE Deep Dive
Diving Deeper Into CROCI, A Cash Returns Complement To ROCE
Profits Over Prices: A Returns-Based Normalized Framework for Evaluating Traditional Energy
Lessons From 2023: New ROCE Regime At Odds With Demands To "Transition"
High cost of capital delaying growth CAPEX impulse
ROCE Deep Dive Post #5
20%+ ROCE in the 2020s for traditional energy leaders
ROCE Deep Dive Post #4
Identifying Early ROCE Signals Ahead of Major Cycle Turns
ROCE Deep Dive Post #3
Dumb Calls I Made as a Street Analyst
Post #1: OXY post the March 2000 Altura Energy acquisition
From Fake IRRs and Surplus Capital to ROCE and Capital Discipline
ROCE Deep Dive Post #2
From Not for Profit to a New ROCE Super-Cycle
ROCE Deep Dive Post #1
Resilient Coal
ESG 2.0
Munich Re and Newton's 3rd Law
Sticks & Stones was wrong, words matter
Super-Spiked Videopods (EP9): Proxy Wars - Banks & Climate
Scope 3 is a Societal Cop-out
Energy Transition Resilience: Fortress balance sheet
Super-Spiked Videopods (EP2): ESG 2.0 & Energy Transition Framework
ESG 2.0: Substance, virtue signaling, profitability
Geopolitics
Geopolitical and Environmental Implications of US Oil & Gas M&A
Disruption Countries Risk: A Navigable Macro Factor
"I'm from the government and I'm here to help"
A thriving Canadian oil & gas industry is critical to a less messy energy transition era
#FreeCanadianOil🇨🇦: Keep Russian oil in the ground instead
What does pariah state status imply for future Russia oil exports?
We need more good barrels and fewer bad barrels
Energy security and the case for Canada, part 1
Bedlam in Belgium: Ill-advised energy transition policies increase geopolitical risks
Streams
MacroVoices (2024-03-14)
Wicked Energy with JG (2024-02-08)
Energy Thinks Podcast (2024-02-05)
Lykeion - Geopolitics of Commodities (2024-01-12)
Fire2Fission (2023-12-26)
Smarter Markets (2023-07-29)
Hold These Truths, Rep Dan Crenshaw (2023-07-22)
Power Hungry Podcast (2023-07-11)
Climate One (2023-04-07)
Columbia Energy Exchange (2023-04-04)
Super-Spiked
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